Predictions / Football / Egypt. Premier League / Abu Qair Semad vs Al Ittihad

Prediction Audit: Abu Qair Semad vs Al Ittihad Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Abu Qair Semad Abu Qair Semad
Sep 02, 2026 - 17:00
0 0.98
2 0.95
xG Accuracy: 57%
Al Ittihad Al Ittihad

The model missed the final outcome (Al Ittihad win 0–2).

The model had projected Draw at 35.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 draw Al Ittihad ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1, 2-0 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Abu Qair Semad considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Abu Qair Semad +5.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Abu Qair Semad 33.3% 27.5% +5.8 pp Model Higher
Draw 35.0% 38.6% -3.6 pp Aligned
Al Ittihad 31.7% 33.9% -2.2 pp Aligned

The statistical model estimates Abu Qair Semad's win probability at 33.3%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 27.5%, a difference of 5.8 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Al Ittihad win 0–2.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Abu Qair Semad.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Low-scoring profile materialised (ΣxG 1.93, 2 goals)
  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned draw; match finished Al Ittihad
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Draw by 5.8 percentage points (29.2% vs model 35.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 02, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Abu Qair Semad 33.3% · Draw 35.1% · Al Ittihad 31.6%
    • xG · Abu Qair Semad 0.98 — Al Ittihad 0.95
  2. Sep 02, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Abu Qair Semad 3.47 · Draw 2.47 · Al Ittihad 2.82
    • Implied 1X2 · Abu Qair Semad 27.5% · Draw 38.6% · Al Ittihad 33.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 02, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Abu Qair Semad 3.47 · Draw 2.47 · Al Ittihad 2.82
    • Implied 1X2 · Abu Qair Semad 27.5% · Draw 38.6% · Al Ittihad 33.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 02, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Al Ittihad win · 0–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 71/100
Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 27, 2026 · 02:19 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5625124

Closing Odds 3.47
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Al Ittihad win · Abu Qair Semad 0–2 Al Ittihad
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Premier League
  • Fixture: Abu Qair Semad vs Al Ittihad
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-02 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.3% · Draw 35.1% · Away 31.6%
  • xG (showing): Abu Qair Semad 0.98 — Al Ittihad 0.95 (total xG ≈ 1.93)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.0%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 69.6% · Over 2.5 30.4%); BTTS No (Yes 40.1% · No 59.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 40.1% · No 59.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-0 (14.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Premier League Premier League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Pyramids FC 5 5 0 0 15
2 Zamalek SC 5 4 1 0 13
3 Al Ahly 5 4 1 0 13
4 Ceramica Cleopatra 5 4 0 1 12
5 Future FC 5 3 1 1 10
6 Al Ittihad 5 3 1 1 10
7 El Mokawloon 5 2 1 2 7
8 Petrojet 5 2 1 2 7
9 El Geish 5 2 1 2 7
10 Masr 5 2 1 2 7
11 Olympic El Qanah 5 1 3 1 6
12 AL Masry 5 2 0 3 6
13 National Bank of Egypt 5 2 0 3 6
14 Wadi Degla 5 1 2 2 5
15 Enppi 5 1 1 3 4
16 Smouha SC 5 1 1 3 4
17 Abu Qair Semad 5 1 0 4 3
18 El Gouna FC 5 0 2 3 2
19 Asyut Petrol 5 0 2 3 2
20 Ghazl El Mehalla 5 0 1 4 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Ceramica Cleopatra 5 10 3 +7 12
2 Pyramids FC 5 9 1 +8 15
3 Al Ahly 5 9 3 +6 13
4 Zamalek SC 5 8 1 +7 13
5 Petrojet 5 8 8 0 7
6 Future FC 5 7 4 +3 10
7 Al Ittihad 5 6 3 +3 10
8 El Mokawloon 5 6 5 +1 7
9 Enppi 5 6 9 -3 4
10 El Geish 5 5 5 0 7
11 Olympic El Qanah 5 5 5 0 6
12 AL Masry 5 5 7 -2 6
13 Masr 5 4 5 -1 7
14 Wadi Degla 5 4 5 -1 5
15 National Bank of Egypt 5 4 7 -3 6
16 El Gouna FC 5 3 6 -3 2
17 Smouha SC 5 1 4 -3 4
18 Asyut Petrol 5 1 5 -4 2
19 Abu Qair Semad 5 1 8 -7 3
20 Ghazl El Mehalla 5 1 9 -8 1
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Pyramids FC 5 4.7 1.0 +3.7 15
2 AL Masry 5 4.8 2.7 +2.1 6
3 Petrojet 5 5.3 3.7 +1.6 7
4 National Bank of Egypt 5 4.0 2.4 +1.6 6
5 Ceramica Cleopatra 5 5.5 4.1 +1.4 12
6 Al Ahly 5 4.2 3.0 +1.2 13
7 Wadi Degla 5 3.6 3.3 +0.3 5
8 Smouha SC 5 2.2 1.9 +0.3 4
9 Asyut Petrol 5 1.9 1.7 +0.2 2
10 Future FC 5 4.6 4.5 +0.1 10
11 Al Ittihad 5 3.7 3.6 +0.1 10
12 El Geish 5 2.9 3.0 -0.1 7
13 Masr 5 3.1 3.6 -0.5 7
14 Enppi 5 4.9 5.7 -0.8 4
15 Abu Qair Semad 5 0.9 1.7 -0.8 3
16 El Mokawloon 5 3.4 4.4 -1.0 7
17 El Gouna FC 5 3.2 4.9 -1.7 2
18 Olympic El Qanah 5 2.4 4.5 -2.1 6
19 Zamalek SC 5 2.6 5.0 -2.4 13
20 Ghazl El Mehalla 5 1.9 5.0 -3.1 1