Prediction Audit: AL Masry vs Smouha SC Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

AL Masry

Aug 22, 2026 - 17:00

1 0.87

0 1.14

xG Accuracy: 70%

Smouha SC

The model missed the final outcome (AL Masry win 1–0).

The model had projected Smouha SC at 40.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
1X2 Smouha SC AL Masry ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 0-1, 0-0, 1-1, 1-0, 0-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
AL Masry	26.1%	47.6%	-21.5 pp	Market Higher
Draw	33.8%	31.3%	+2.5 pp	Aligned
Smouha SC	40.1%	21.1%	+19.0 pp	Model Edge

The closing market estimates AL Masry's win probability at 47.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 26.1%, a difference of 21.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was AL Masry win 1–0.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Low-scoring profile materialised (ΣxG 2.01, 1 goals)
Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

1X2: model leaned Smouha SC; match finished AL Masry

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Smouha SC by 21.5 percentage points (61.6% vs model 40.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 22, 2026 · 20:02 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · AL Masry 26.1% · Draw 33.8% · Smouha SC 40.2%
- xG · AL Masry 0.87 — Smouha SC 1.14
Aug 22, 2026 · 16:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · AL Masry 2.00 · Draw 3.04 · Smouha SC 4.51
- Implied 1X2 · AL Masry 47.6% · Draw 31.3% · Smouha SC 21.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 22, 2026 · 17:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · AL Masry 2.00 · Draw 3.04 · Smouha SC 4.51
- Implied 1X2 · AL Masry 47.6% · Draw 31.3% · Smouha SC 21.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 22, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result AL Masry win · 1–0
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 52/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (22 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Pricing remains divergent
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100

Monitoring Confidence 14/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 16, 2026 · 02:53 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4239314

Closing Odds 2.0

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result AL Masry win · AL Masry 1–0 Smouha SC

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Premier League
Fixture: AL Masry vs Smouha SC
Kickoff: 2026-08-22 17:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 50.0% · Draw 50.0% · Away 0.0%
xG (showing): AL Masry 0.87 — Smouha SC 1.14 (total xG ≈ 2.01)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Premier League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Pyramids FC	5	5	0	0	15
2	Zamalek SC	5	4	1	0	13
3	Al Ahly	5	4	1	0	13
4	Ceramica Cleopatra	5	4	0	1	12
5	Future FC	5	3	1	1	10
6	Al Ittihad	5	3	1	1	10
7	El Mokawloon	5	2	1	2	7
8	Petrojet	5	2	1	2	7
9	El Geish	5	2	1	2	7
10	Masr	5	2	1	2	7
11	Olympic El Qanah	5	1	3	1	6
12	AL Masry	5	2	0	3	6
13	National Bank of Egypt	5	2	0	3	6
14	Wadi Degla	5	1	2	2	5
15	Enppi	5	1	1	3	4
16	Smouha SC	5	1	1	3	4
17	Abu Qair Semad	5	1	0	4	3
18	El Gouna FC	5	0	2	3	2
19	Asyut Petrol	5	0	2	3	2
20	Ghazl El Mehalla	5	0	1	4	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Ceramica Cleopatra	5	10	3	+7	12
2	Pyramids FC	5	9	1	+8	15
3	Al Ahly	5	9	3	+6	13
4	Zamalek SC	5	8	1	+7	13
5	Petrojet	5	8	8	0	7
6	Future FC	5	7	4	+3	10
7	Al Ittihad	5	6	3	+3	10
8	El Mokawloon	5	6	5	+1	7
9	Enppi	5	6	9	-3	4
10	El Geish	5	5	5	0	7
11	Olympic El Qanah	5	5	5	0	6
12	AL Masry	5	5	7	-2	6
13	Masr	5	4	5	-1	7
14	Wadi Degla	5	4	5	-1	5
15	National Bank of Egypt	5	4	7	-3	6
16	El Gouna FC	5	3	6	-3	2
17	Smouha SC	5	1	4	-3	4
18	Asyut Petrol	5	1	5	-4	2
19	Abu Qair Semad	5	1	8	-7	3
20	Ghazl El Mehalla	5	1	9	-8	1

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Pyramids FC	5	4.7	1.0	+3.7	15
2	AL Masry	5	4.8	2.7	+2.1	6
3	Petrojet	5	5.3	3.7	+1.6	7
4	National Bank of Egypt	5	4.0	2.4	+1.6	6
5	Ceramica Cleopatra	5	5.5	4.1	+1.4	12
6	Al Ahly	5	4.2	3.0	+1.2	13
7	Wadi Degla	5	3.6	3.3	+0.3	5
8	Smouha SC	5	2.2	1.9	+0.3	4
9	Asyut Petrol	5	1.9	1.7	+0.2	2
10	Future FC	5	4.6	4.5	+0.1	10
11	Al Ittihad	5	3.7	3.6	+0.1	10
12	El Geish	5	2.9	3.0	-0.1	7
13	Masr	5	3.1	3.6	-0.5	7
14	Enppi	5	4.9	5.7	-0.8	4
15	Abu Qair Semad	5	0.9	1.7	-0.8	3
16	El Mokawloon	5	3.4	4.4	-1.0	7
17	El Gouna FC	5	3.2	4.9	-1.7	2
18	Olympic El Qanah	5	2.4	4.5	-2.1	6
19	Zamalek SC	5	2.6	5.0	-2.4	13
20	Ghazl El Mehalla	5	1.9	5.0	-3.1	1