The model missed the final outcome (RFC de Liege U21 win 1–0).
The model had projected Kortrijk U21 at 50.3%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
F
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Kortrijk U21 RFC de Liege U21 ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 0-1, 1-1, 0-2, 1-2, 0-0 1-0 ✖ Incorrect
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned Kortrijk U21; match finished RFC de Liege U21
Market lesson
The full-time result was RFC de Liege U21 win 1–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
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Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 02:01 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · RFC de Liege U21 0.99 — Kortrijk U21 1.61
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result RFC de Liege U21 win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidence
★★★★★
- Moderate model lean
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
RFC de Liege U21 win · RFC de Liege U21 1–0 Kortrijk U21
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Reserve Pro League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Waasland-Beveren U21 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 2 | RWDM U21 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 3 | RAAL La Louviere U21 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 4 | Westerlo U21 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | RFC Seraing Reserve U21 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 6 | Kortrijk U21 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | K. Beerschot V.A. Reserve U21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 8 | Francs Borains U21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | RFC de Liege U21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 10 | Sp. Hasselt U21 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 11 | Lierse K. U21 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Waasland-Beveren U21 | 4 | 16 | 6 | +10 | 9 |
| 2 | Westerlo U21 | 3 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 6 |
| 3 | Francs Borains U21 | 3 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 3 |
| 4 | RFC Seraing Reserve U21 | 3 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 6 |
| 5 | RAAL La Louviere U21 | 4 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 7 |
| 6 | RWDM U21 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 7 |
| 7 | Kortrijk U21 | 3 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 6 |
| 8 | K. Beerschot V.A. Reserve U21 | 3 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 3 |
| 9 | Lierse K. U21 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 1 |
| 10 | Sp. Hasselt U21 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 1 |
| 11 | RFC de Liege U21 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 3 |
