AI correctly predicted the Waasland-Beveren U21 win.
The match finished 6–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Waasland-Beveren U21 Waasland-Beveren U21 ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 6-0 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waasland-Beveren U21 | 48.3% | 72.5% | -24.2 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 28.4% | 14.7% | +13.7 pp | Model Edge |
| RFC de Liege U21 | 23.3% | 12.8% | +10.5 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Waasland-Beveren U21's win probability at 72.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 48.3%, a difference of 24.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Waasland-Beveren U21 win 6–0).
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised
- Waasland-Beveren U21 attacking xG significantly stronger (1.57 vs 1.03)
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Waasland-Beveren U21 higher (72.5% vs model 48.3%, 24.2 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Waasland-Beveren U21 win 6–0).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 04, 2026 · 17:55 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Waasland-Beveren U21 48.3% · Draw 28.4% · RFC de Liege U21 23.3%
- xG · Waasland-Beveren U21 1.57 — RFC de Liege U21 1.03
-
Sep 04, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Waasland-Beveren U21 1.22 · Draw 6.02 · RFC de Liege U21 6.89
- Implied 1X2 · Waasland-Beveren U21 72.5% · Draw 14.7% · RFC de Liege U21 12.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 04, 2026 · 17:55 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Waasland-Beveren U21 1.22 · Draw 6.02 · RFC de Liege U21 6.89
- Implied 1X2 · Waasland-Beveren U21 72.5% · Draw 14.7% · RFC de Liege U21 12.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 04, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Waasland-Beveren U21 win · 6–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (24 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Reserve Pro League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Waasland-Beveren U21 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 2 | RWDM U21 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 3 | RAAL La Louviere U21 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 4 | Westerlo U21 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | RFC Seraing Reserve U21 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 6 | Kortrijk U21 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | K. Beerschot V.A. Reserve U21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 8 | Francs Borains U21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | RFC de Liege U21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 10 | Sp. Hasselt U21 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 11 | Lierse K. U21 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Waasland-Beveren U21 | 4 | 16 | 6 | +10 | 9 |
| 2 | Westerlo U21 | 3 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 6 |
| 3 | Francs Borains U21 | 3 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 3 |
| 4 | RFC Seraing Reserve U21 | 3 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 6 |
| 5 | RAAL La Louviere U21 | 4 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 7 |
| 6 | RWDM U21 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 7 |
| 7 | Kortrijk U21 | 3 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 6 |
| 8 | K. Beerschot V.A. Reserve U21 | 3 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 3 |
| 9 | Lierse K. U21 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 1 |
| 10 | Sp. Hasselt U21 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 1 |
| 11 | RFC de Liege U21 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 3 |
