The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).
The model had projected Oued Akbou at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Oued Akbou Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JS Saoura | 34.7% | 47.4% | -12.7 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 32.4% | -2.7 pp | Aligned |
| Oued Akbou | 35.6% | 20.2% | +15.4 pp | Model Edge |
The statistical model estimates Oued Akbou's win probability at 35.6%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 20.2%, a difference of 15.4 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.
Market Assessment
The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Oued Akbou.
- The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned Oued Akbou; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Oued Akbou by 15.4 percentage points (20.2% vs model 35.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 14, 2026 · 02:54 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · JS Saoura 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Oued Akbou 35.6%
- xG · JS Saoura 1.29 — Oued Akbou 1.31
-
Oct 08, 2026 · 16:39 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE20
- 1X2 odds · JS Saoura 1.88 · Draw 2.75 · Oued Akbou 4.40
- Implied 1X2 · JS Saoura 47.4% · Draw 32.4% · Oued Akbou 20.2%
- Bookmaker · betmgm us
-
Oct 08, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · JS Saoura 1.88 · Draw 2.75 · Oued Akbou 4.40
- Implied 1X2 · JS Saoura 47.4% · Draw 32.4% · Oued Akbou 20.2%
- Bookmaker · betmgm us
-
Oct 08, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (15 pp)
- Statistical edge detected
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Ligue 1 — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | USM Alger | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 2 | CR Belouizdad | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | MC Oran | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 4 | Ben Aknoun | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 5 | CS Constantine | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | Témouchent | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | ES Setif | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 8 | MC Alger | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | JS El Biar | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 10 | JS Kabylie | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 11 | Oued Akbou | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 12 | MB Rouisset | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 13 | Khenchela | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 14 | US Biskra | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 15 | ASO Chlef | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 16 | JS Saoura | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | USM Alger | 3 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 7 |
| 2 | CR Belouizdad | 3 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 7 |
| 3 | ES Setif | 3 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 3 |
| 4 | CS Constantine | 3 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 4 |
| 5 | Ben Aknoun | 3 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 5 |
| 6 | JS El Biar | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Oued Akbou | 3 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 3 |
| 8 | MC Oran | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 6 |
| 9 | ASO Chlef | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 1 |
| 10 | MC Alger | 1 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 11 | Témouchent | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 12 | MB Rouisset | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 13 | US Biskra | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| 14 | JS Kabylie | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 15 | Khenchela | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| 16 | JS Saoura | 2 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 1 |
