AI correctly predicted the JS Kabylie win.
The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 JS Kabylie JS Kabylie ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JS Kabylie | 37.1% | 55.5% | -18.4 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 28.0% | +1.6 pp | Aligned |
| MB Rouisset | 33.3% | 16.5% | +16.8 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates JS Kabylie's win probability at 55.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.1%, a difference of 18.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (JS Kabylie win 1–0).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about JS Kabylie than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced JS Kabylie higher (55.5% vs model 37.1%, 18.4 pp), but the model's lean was validated (JS Kabylie win 1–0).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 04, 2026 · 19:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · JS Kabylie 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · MB Rouisset 33.4%
- xG · JS Kabylie 1.34 — MB Rouisset 1.26
-
Sep 04, 2026 · 19:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · JS Kabylie 1.67 · Draw 3.31 · MB Rouisset 5.60
- Implied 1X2 · JS Kabylie 55.5% · Draw 28.0% · MB Rouisset 16.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 04, 2026 · 19:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · JS Kabylie 1.67 · Draw 3.31 · MB Rouisset 5.60
- Implied 1X2 · JS Kabylie 55.5% · Draw 28.0% · MB Rouisset 16.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 04, 2026 · 20:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result JS Kabylie win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (18 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Ligue 1 — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | USM Alger | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 2 | Ben Aknoun | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Oued Akbou | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | JS Kabylie | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | ASO Chlef | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | CR Belouizdad | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 7 | CS Constantine | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | Témouchent | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | US Biskra | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Khenchela | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | MC Alger | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | MC Oran | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | JS Saoura | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | ES Setif | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 15 | MB Rouisset | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 16 | JS El Biar | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ben Aknoun | 2 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 4 |
| 2 | ASO Chlef | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| 3 | CR Belouizdad | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 | USM Alger | 2 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 4 |
| 5 | Oued Akbou | 1 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 6 | US Biskra | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| 7 | JS Kabylie | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 8 | CS Constantine | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Témouchent | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Khenchela | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | MC Alger | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | MC Oran | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | JS Saoura | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | ES Setif | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 15 | MB Rouisset | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 16 | JS El Biar | 2 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 0 |
