Predictions / Football / Bhutan. Premier League / Tsirang vs Bhutan U19

Prediction Audit: Tsirang vs Bhutan U19 Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Tsirang Tsirang
Aug 18, 2026 - 10:00
5 1.37
5 1.23
xG Accuracy: 13%
Bhutan U19 Bhutan U19

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 5–5).

The model had projected Tsirang at 38.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (10 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Tsirang Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 5-5 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 10 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (10 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Tsirang; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 5–5, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 12, 2026 · 02:04 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Tsirang 1.37 — Bhutan U19 1.23
  2. Aug 18, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Draw · 5–5
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 12, 2026 · 02:04 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3727156

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Tsirang 5–5 Bhutan U19
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Premier League
  • Fixture: Tsirang vs Bhutan U19
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-18 09:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Away 31.9%
  • xG (showing): Tsirang 1.37 — Bhutan U19 1.23 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Premier League Premier League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Paro 16 14 1 1 43
2 Thimphu City 17 12 4 1 40
3 Thimphu 17 10 1 6 31
4 Transport United 17 9 2 6 29
5 RTC 18 8 4 6 28
6 Drukpa 17 6 5 6 23
7 Bhutan U19 16 5 4 7 19
8 Tsirang 18 4 4 10 16
9 Tensung 18 2 2 14 8
10 Ugyen Academy 18 2 1 15 7
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Paro 16 66 12 +54 43
2 Thimphu City 17 49 12 +37 40
3 Drukpa 17 35 28 +7 23
4 RTC 18 29 20 +9 28
5 Bhutan U19 16 28 38 -10 19
6 Transport United 17 27 23 +4 29
7 Tsirang 18 27 48 -21 16
8 Thimphu 17 26 21 +5 31
9 Ugyen Academy 18 15 61 -46 7
10 Tensung 18 14 53 -39 8
Premier League Bhutan. Premier League Predictions