AI correctly predicted the Zvijezda Gradačac win.
The match finished 3–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Zvijezda Gradačac Zvijezda Gradačac ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-1 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zvijezda Gradačac | 39.0% | 59.6% | -20.6 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.5% | 24.2% | +5.4 pp | Model Higher |
| Jedinstvo Bihać | 31.5% | 16.2% | +15.2 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Zvijezda Gradačac's win probability at 59.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.0%, a difference of 20.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Zvijezda Gradačac win 3–1).
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Zvijezda Gradačac higher (59.6% vs model 39.0%, 20.6 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Zvijezda Gradačac win 3–1).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 13:23 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Zvijezda Gradačac 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Jedinstvo Bihać 31.5%
- xG · Zvijezda Gradačac 1.38 — Jedinstvo Bihać 1.22
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 13:09 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Zvijezda Gradačac 1.50 · Draw 3.70 · Jedinstvo Bihać 5.50
- Implied 1X2 · Zvijezda Gradačac 59.6% · Draw 24.2% · Jedinstvo Bihać 16.2%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 13:23 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE10
- 1X2 odds · Zvijezda Gradačac 1.50 · Draw 3.70 · Jedinstvo Bihać 5.50
- Implied 1X2 · Zvijezda Gradačac 59.6% · Draw 24.2% · Jedinstvo Bihać 16.2%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Zvijezda Gradačac win · 3–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (21 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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1st League - FBiH — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Travnik | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 18 |
| 2 | Stupčanica Olovo | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 15 |
| 3 | GOŠK Gabela | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 15 |
| 4 | Posušje | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 14 |
| 5 | Sloboda Tuzla | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 6 | Igman Konjic | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 7 | Jedinstvo Bihać | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 8 | Bratstvo Gračanica | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 9 | TOŠK Tešanj | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 10 | Budućnost Banovići | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 11 | Zvijezda Gradačac | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 12 | Radnik Hadžići | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 13 | Čapljina | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 14 | Tomislav | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 15 | Vitez | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 16 | Rudar Kakanj | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stupčanica Olovo | 6 | 18 | 4 | +14 | 15 |
| 2 | Jedinstvo Bihać | 6 | 14 | 6 | +8 | 9 |
| 3 | Travnik | 6 | 13 | 3 | +10 | 18 |
| 4 | Sloboda Tuzla | 6 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 11 |
| 5 | GOŠK Gabela | 6 | 10 | 2 | +8 | 15 |
| 6 | Posušje | 6 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 14 |
| 7 | Bratstvo Gračanica | 6 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 7 |
| 8 | Igman Konjic | 6 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 11 |
| 9 | Budućnost Banovići | 6 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 5 |
| 10 | Tomislav | 6 | 6 | 17 | -11 | 4 |
| 11 | TOŠK Tešanj | 6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Čapljina | 6 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 4 |
| 13 | Vitez | 6 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 3 |
| 14 | Zvijezda Gradačac | 6 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 4 |
| 15 | Radnik Hadžići | 6 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 | Rudar Kakanj | 6 | 2 | 11 | -9 | 3 |
