The model missed the final outcome (Posušje win 1–0).
The model had projected GOŠK Gabela at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
F
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 GOŠK Gabela Posušje ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned GOŠK Gabela; match finished Posušje
Market lesson
The full-time result was Posušje win 1–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 14, 2026 · 01:50 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Posušje 1.26 — GOŠK Gabela 1.34
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Posušje win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidence
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Posušje win · Posušje 1–0 GOŠK Gabela
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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1st League - FBiH — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Travnik | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 18 |
| 2 | Stupčanica Olovo | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 15 |
| 3 | GOŠK Gabela | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 15 |
| 4 | Posušje | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 14 |
| 5 | Sloboda Tuzla | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 6 | Igman Konjic | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 7 | Jedinstvo Bihać | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 8 | Bratstvo Gračanica | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 9 | TOŠK Tešanj | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 10 | Budućnost Banovići | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 11 | Zvijezda Gradačac | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 12 | Radnik Hadžići | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 13 | Čapljina | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 14 | Tomislav | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 15 | Vitez | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 16 | Rudar Kakanj | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stupčanica Olovo | 6 | 18 | 4 | +14 | 15 |
| 2 | Jedinstvo Bihać | 6 | 14 | 6 | +8 | 9 |
| 3 | Travnik | 6 | 13 | 3 | +10 | 18 |
| 4 | Sloboda Tuzla | 6 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 11 |
| 5 | GOŠK Gabela | 6 | 10 | 2 | +8 | 15 |
| 6 | Posušje | 6 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 14 |
| 7 | Bratstvo Gračanica | 6 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 7 |
| 8 | Igman Konjic | 6 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 11 |
| 9 | Budućnost Banovići | 6 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 5 |
| 10 | Tomislav | 6 | 6 | 17 | -11 | 4 |
| 11 | TOŠK Tešanj | 6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Čapljina | 6 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 4 |
| 13 | Vitez | 6 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 3 |
| 14 | Zvijezda Gradačac | 6 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 4 |
| 15 | Radnik Hadžići | 6 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 | Rudar Kakanj | 6 | 2 | 11 | -9 | 3 |
