Predictions / Football / Moldova. Super Liga / CSF Bălți vs Zimbru

Prediction Audit: CSF Bălți vs Zimbru Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

CSF Bălți CSF Bălți
Aug 22, 2026 - 15:00
0 1.19
4 1.41
xG Accuracy: 35%
Zimbru Zimbru

AI correctly predicted the Zimbru win.

The match finished 0–4, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Zimbru Zimbru ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-0 0-4 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Zimbru higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Zimbru -48.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
CSF Bălți 30.1% 2.8% +27.4 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.4% 8.6% +20.9 pp Model Edge
Zimbru 40.4% 88.7% -48.3 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Zimbru's win probability at 88.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 40.4%, a difference of 48.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Zimbru win 0–4).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Zimbru higher (88.7% vs model 40.4%, 48.3 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Zimbru win 0–4).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 22, 2026 · 15:04 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · CSF Bălți 30.1% · Draw 29.4% · Zimbru 40.5%
    • xG · CSF Bălți 1.19 — Zimbru 1.41
  2. Aug 22, 2026 · 14:39 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · CSF Bălți 34.00 · Draw 11.00 · Zimbru 1.06
    • Implied 1X2 · CSF Bălți 2.8% · Draw 8.6% · Zimbru 88.7%
    • Bookmaker · Bet365
  3. Aug 22, 2026 · 15:04 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · CSF Bălți 34.00 · Draw 11.00 · Zimbru 1.06
    • Implied 1X2 · CSF Bălți 2.8% · Draw 8.6% · Zimbru 88.7%
    • Bookmaker · Bet365
  4. Aug 22, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Zimbru win · 0–4
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 25/100 · Low
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (48 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 7/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 16, 2026 · 02:33 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4235312

Closing Odds 1.06
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Zimbru win · CSF Bălți 0–4 Zimbru
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Zimbru; market prices Zimbru instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: CSF Bălți 1.19 xG vs Zimbru 1.41 → Zimbru 40.4%
  • Market: Zimbru ~88.7% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Super Liga Super Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Sheriff Tiraspol 13 8 4 1 28
2 Zimbru 13 8 2 3 26
3 Petrocub 13 7 3 3 24
4 Dacia-Buiucani 13 6 2 5 20
5 Milsami Orhei 13 4 5 4 17
6 Politehnica UTM 13 4 3 6 15
7 Sireți 13 0 7 6 7
8 CSF Bălți 13 1 2 10 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Sheriff Tiraspol 13 32 10 +22 28
2 Zimbru 13 27 12 +15 26
3 Petrocub 13 24 13 +11 24
4 Politehnica UTM 13 18 19 -1 15
5 Dacia-Buiucani 13 17 16 +1 20
6 Milsami Orhei 13 13 17 -4 17
7 CSF Bălți 13 9 42 -33 5
8 Sireți 13 8 19 -11 7