Predictions / Football / Moldova. Super Liga / Sireți vs Sheriff Tiraspol

Prediction Audit: Sireți vs Sheriff Tiraspol Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Sireți Sireți
Aug 16, 2026 - 17:00
1 1.12
1 1.48
xG Accuracy: 85%
Sheriff Tiraspol Sheriff Tiraspol

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Sheriff Tiraspol at 43.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Sheriff Tiraspol Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Sheriff Tiraspol higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Sheriff Tiraspol -33.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Sireți 27.1% 8.7% +18.4 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.1% 13.8% +15.2 pp Model Edge
Sheriff Tiraspol 43.8% 77.5% -33.6 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Sheriff Tiraspol's win probability at 77.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 43.8%, a difference of 33.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Sheriff Tiraspol; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Sheriff Tiraspol by 33.6 percentage points (77.4% vs model 43.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 16, 2026 · 17:01 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Sireți 27.1% · Draw 29.1% · Sheriff Tiraspol 43.9%
    • xG · Sireți 1.12 — Sheriff Tiraspol 1.48
  2. Aug 16, 2026 · 16:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Sireți 10.26 · Draw 6.43 · Sheriff Tiraspol 1.15
    • Implied 1X2 · Sireți 8.7% · Draw 13.8% · Sheriff Tiraspol 77.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 16, 2026 · 17:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Sireți 10.26 · Draw 6.43 · Sheriff Tiraspol 1.15
    • Implied 1X2 · Sireți 8.7% · Draw 13.8% · Sheriff Tiraspol 77.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 16, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 32/100 · Low
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (34 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 9/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 11, 2026 · 01:49 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3613085

Closing Odds 1.15
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Sireți 1–1 Sheriff Tiraspol
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Sheriff Tiraspol; market prices Sheriff Tiraspol instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Sireți 1.12 xG vs Sheriff Tiraspol 1.48 → Sheriff Tiraspol 43.8%
  • Market: Sheriff Tiraspol ~77.5% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.6% · No 46.4%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Super Liga Super Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Sheriff Tiraspol 13 8 4 1 28
2 Zimbru 13 8 2 3 26
3 Petrocub 13 7 3 3 24
4 Dacia-Buiucani 13 6 2 5 20
5 Milsami Orhei 13 4 5 4 17
6 Politehnica UTM 13 4 3 6 15
7 Sireți 13 0 7 6 7
8 CSF Bălți 13 1 2 10 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Sheriff Tiraspol 13 32 10 +22 28
2 Zimbru 13 27 12 +15 26
3 Petrocub 13 24 13 +11 24
4 Politehnica UTM 13 18 19 -1 15
5 Dacia-Buiucani 13 17 16 +1 20
6 Milsami Orhei 13 13 17 -4 17
7 CSF Bălți 13 9 42 -33 5
8 Sireți 13 8 19 -11 7