Predictions / Football / Paraguay. Division Profesional - Clausura / Olimpia vs Sportivo Ameliano

Prediction Audit: Olimpia vs Sportivo Ameliano Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Olimpia Olimpia
Aug 16, 2026 - 21:30
2 1.76
1 1.10
xG Accuracy: 91%
Sportivo Ameliano Sportivo Ameliano

AI correctly predicted the Olimpia win.

The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Olimpia Olimpia ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 2-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Olimpia +4.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Olimpia 51.4% 46.8% +4.6 pp Aligned
Draw 26.4% 29.5% -3.1 pp Aligned
Sportivo Ameliano 22.2% 23.6% -1.4 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Olimpia win 2–1).

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.86) — 3 goals materialised
  • Olimpia attacking xG significantly stronger (1.76 vs 1.10)
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Olimpia win 2–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 16, 2026 · 21:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Olimpia 51.3% · Draw 26.4% · Sportivo Ameliano 22.2%
    • xG · Olimpia 1.76 — Sportivo Ameliano 1.10
  2. Aug 16, 2026 · 21:00 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Olimpia 2.03 · Draw 3.22 · Sportivo Ameliano 4.02
    • Implied 1X2 · Olimpia 46.8% · Draw 29.5% · Sportivo Ameliano 23.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 16, 2026 · 21:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Olimpia 2.03 · Draw 3.22 · Sportivo Ameliano 4.02
    • Implied 1X2 · Olimpia 46.8% · Draw 29.5% · Sportivo Ameliano 23.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 16, 2026 · 21:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Olimpia win · 2–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 77/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Moderate model lean
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 77/100
Betting Confidence 80/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 11, 2026 · 02:05 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3616856

Closing Odds 2.03
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Olimpia win · Olimpia 2–1 Sportivo Ameliano
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Division Profesional - Clausura
  • Fixture: Olimpia vs Sportivo Ameliano
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-16 21:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 51.3% · Draw 26.4% · Away 22.2%
  • xG (showing): Olimpia 1.76 — Sportivo Ameliano 1.1 (total xG ≈ 2.86)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 45.5% · Over 2.5 54.5%); BTTS Yes (Yes 56.7% · No 43.3%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 56.7% · No 43.3%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.1%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Division Profesional - Clausura Division Profesional - Clausura — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Libertad Asuncion 11 7 2 2 23
2 Nacional Asuncion 12 6 4 2 22
3 2 de Mayo 12 6 4 2 22
4 Olimpia 11 7 1 3 22
5 Club Guarani 12 5 5 2 20
6 Sportivo Ameliano 12 4 6 2 18
7 Sportivo Trinidense 11 5 2 4 17
8 Cerro Porteno 11 5 2 4 17
9 Sportivo Luqueno 12 4 1 7 13
10 Rubio NU 12 2 3 7 9
11 Deportivo Recoleta 11 2 1 8 7
12 Club Sp. San Lorenzo 11 0 1 10 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Olimpia 11 20 9 +11 22
2 Nacional Asuncion 12 19 7 +12 22
3 Libertad Asuncion 11 19 12 +7 23
4 Sportivo Trinidense 11 18 10 +8 17
5 Cerro Porteno 11 14 10 +4 17
6 2 de Mayo 12 14 13 +1 22
7 Sportivo Ameliano 12 14 13 +1 18
8 Club Guarani 12 13 9 +4 20
9 Rubio NU 12 13 23 -10 9
10 Deportivo Recoleta 11 13 24 -11 7
11 Sportivo Luqueno 12 12 21 -9 13
12 Club Sp. San Lorenzo 11 3 21 -18 1