The model missed the final outcome (Sportivo Ameliano win 1–0).
The model had projected Cerro Porteno at 48.3%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Cerro Porteno Sportivo Ameliano ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 0-1, 0-0, 1-1, 0-2, 1-0 1-0 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sportivo Ameliano | 19.8% | 25.1% | -5.4 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 32.0% | 30.4% | +1.6 pp | Aligned |
| Cerro Porteno | 48.3% | 44.5% | +3.8 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Sportivo Ameliano's win probability at 25.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 19.8%, a difference of 5.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Sportivo Ameliano win 1–0.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Sportivo Ameliano. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Low-scoring profile materialised (ΣxG 2.06, 1 goals)
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Cerro Porteno; match finished Sportivo Ameliano
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Cerro Porteno by 5.4 percentage points (53.7% vs model 48.3%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 08, 2026 · 19:02 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Sportivo Ameliano 19.8% · Draw 31.9% · Cerro Porteno 48.3%
- xG · Sportivo Ameliano 0.75 — Cerro Porteno 1.31
-
Aug 08, 2026 · 18:36 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Sportivo Ameliano 3.79 · Draw 3.13 · Cerro Porteno 2.14
- Implied 1X2 · Sportivo Ameliano 25.1% · Draw 30.4% · Cerro Porteno 44.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 08, 2026 · 19:02 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Sportivo Ameliano 3.79 · Draw 3.13 · Cerro Porteno 2.14
- Implied 1X2 · Sportivo Ameliano 25.1% · Draw 30.4% · Cerro Porteno 44.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 08, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Sportivo Ameliano win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Division Profesional - Clausura — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Libertad Asuncion | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 23 |
| 2 | Nacional Asuncion | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 22 |
| 3 | 2 de Mayo | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 22 |
| 4 | Olimpia | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 22 |
| 5 | Club Guarani | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 20 |
| 6 | Sportivo Ameliano | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 18 |
| 7 | Sportivo Trinidense | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
| 8 | Cerro Porteno | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
| 9 | Sportivo Luqueno | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 13 |
| 10 | Rubio NU | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 9 |
| 11 | Deportivo Recoleta | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 7 |
| 12 | Club Sp. San Lorenzo | 11 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 1 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olimpia | 11 | 20 | 9 | +11 | 22 |
| 2 | Nacional Asuncion | 12 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 22 |
| 3 | Libertad Asuncion | 11 | 19 | 12 | +7 | 23 |
| 4 | Sportivo Trinidense | 11 | 18 | 10 | +8 | 17 |
| 5 | Cerro Porteno | 11 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 17 |
| 6 | 2 de Mayo | 12 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 22 |
| 7 | Sportivo Ameliano | 12 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 18 |
| 8 | Club Guarani | 12 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 20 |
| 9 | Rubio NU | 12 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 9 |
| 10 | Deportivo Recoleta | 11 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 7 |
| 11 | Sportivo Luqueno | 12 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 13 |
| 12 | Club Sp. San Lorenzo | 11 | 3 | 21 | -18 | 1 |
