The model missed the final outcome (Quixadá U20 win 1–0).
The model had projected Fortaleza U20 at 45.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Fortaleza U20 Quixadá U20 ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 1-0 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quixadá U20 | 25.4% | 14.8% | +10.5 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 28.8% | 22.8% | +6.1 pp | Model Higher |
| Fortaleza U20 | 45.8% | 62.4% | -16.6 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Fortaleza U20's win probability at 62.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 45.8%, a difference of 16.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Quixadá U20 win 1–0.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Fortaleza U20 than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned Fortaleza U20; match finished Quixadá U20
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Fortaleza U20 by 16.6 percentage points (62.4% vs model 45.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 12, 2026 · 21:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Quixadá U20 25.4% · Draw 28.8% · Fortaleza U20 45.8%
- xG · Quixadá U20 1.08 — Fortaleza U20 1.52
-
Aug 12, 2026 · 21:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Quixadá U20 6.05 · Draw 3.95 · Fortaleza U20 1.44
- Implied 1X2 · Quixadá U20 14.8% · Draw 22.8% · Fortaleza U20 62.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 12, 2026 · 21:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Quixadá U20 6.05 · Draw 3.95 · Fortaleza U20 1.44
- Implied 1X2 · Quixadá U20 14.8% · Draw 22.8% · Fortaleza U20 62.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 12, 2026 · 22:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Quixadá U20 win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (17 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Cearense U20 — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vila Real FC U20 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | Ceará U20 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | Pague Menos U20 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 4 | Caucaia U20 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 5 | Horizonte U20 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 6 | Anjos do Céu U20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 7 | Tiangua CE U20 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vila Real FC U20 | 5 | 11 | 3 | +8 | 9 |
| 2 | Pague Menos U20 | 4 | 10 | 2 | +8 | 6 |
| 3 | Ceará U20 | 3 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 7 |
| 4 | Horizonte U20 | 4 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 4 |
| 5 | Caucaia U20 | 6 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 5 |
| 6 | Anjos do Céu U20 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 3 |
| 7 | Tiangua CE U20 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 0 |
