The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Svay Rieng at 46.3%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Svay Rieng Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 1-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dangkor Senchey | 25.0% | 13.5% | +11.5 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 28.7% | 17.2% | +11.5 pp | Model Edge |
| Svay Rieng | 46.3% | 69.3% | -23.0 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Svay Rieng's win probability at 69.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 46.3%, a difference of 23.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- 1X2: model leaned Svay Rieng; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Svay Rieng by 23.0 percentage points (69.3% vs model 46.3%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 11:02 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Dangkor Senchey 24.9% · Draw 28.7% · Svay Rieng 46.3%
- xG · Dangkor Senchey 1.07 — Svay Rieng 1.53
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 10:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Dangkor Senchey 6.54 · Draw 5.12 · Svay Rieng 1.27
- Implied 1X2 · Dangkor Senchey 13.5% · Draw 17.2% · Svay Rieng 69.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 11:02 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Dangkor Senchey 6.54 · Draw 5.12 · Svay Rieng 1.27
- Implied 1X2 · Dangkor Senchey 13.5% · Draw 17.2% · Svay Rieng 69.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (23 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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C-League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Visakha | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | Svay Rieng | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | NagaWorld | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | Dangkor Senchey | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 5 | Kompong Dewa | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | Kirivong Sok Sen Chey | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 7 | Phnom Penh Crown | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 8 | Angkor Tiger | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 9 | Boeung Ket | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 10 | Life Sihanoukville | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 11 | National Defense | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Visakha | 3 | 10 | 2 | +8 | 9 |
| 2 | Dangkor Senchey | 3 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 5 |
| 3 | Svay Rieng | 3 | 8 | 1 | +7 | 7 |
| 4 | NagaWorld | 3 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 7 |
| 5 | National Defense | 3 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 0 |
| 6 | Phnom Penh Crown | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 2 |
| 7 | Boeung Ket | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 1 |
| 8 | Angkor Tiger | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 2 |
| 9 | Kompong Dewa | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 10 | Kirivong Sok Sen Chey | 3 | 2 | 10 | -8 | 3 |
| 11 | Life Sihanoukville | 2 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
