Predictions / Football / Romania. Liga II / CSM Satu Mare vs FC Politehnica Timisoara

Prediction Audit: CSM Satu Mare vs FC Politehnica Timisoara Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

CSM Satu Mare CSM Satu Mare
Sep 06, 2026 - 09:30
1 1.33
1 1.27
xG Accuracy: 85%
FC Politehnica Timisoara FC Politehnica Timisoara

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected CSM Satu Mare at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 CSM Satu Mare Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices FC Politehnica Timisoara higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: FC Politehnica Timisoara -26.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
CSM Satu Mare 36.6% 16.8% +19.8 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.6% 23.3% +6.3 pp Model Higher
FC Politehnica Timisoara 33.8% 59.9% -26.1 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates FC Politehnica Timisoara's win probability at 59.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 26.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned CSM Satu Mare; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on CSM Satu Mare by 26.1 percentage points (62.7% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 06, 2026 · 09:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · CSM Satu Mare 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · FC Politehnica Timisoara 33.8%
    • xG · CSM Satu Mare 1.33 — FC Politehnica Timisoara 1.27
  2. Sep 06, 2026 · 09:01 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · CSM Satu Mare 5.39 · Draw 3.88 · FC Politehnica Timisoara 1.51
    • Implied 1X2 · CSM Satu Mare 16.8% · Draw 23.3% · FC Politehnica Timisoara 59.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 06, 2026 · 09:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · CSM Satu Mare 5.39 · Draw 3.88 · FC Politehnica Timisoara 1.51
    • Implied 1X2 · CSM Satu Mare 16.8% · Draw 23.3% · FC Politehnica Timisoara 59.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 06, 2026 · 09:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 50/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (26 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 14/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 01:04 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6322366

Closing Odds 1.51
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · CSM Satu Mare 1–1 FC Politehnica Timisoara
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Liga II
  • Fixture: CSM Satu Mare vs FC Politehnica Timisoara
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-06 09:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.8%
  • xG (showing): CSM Satu Mare 1.33 — FC Politehnica Timisoara 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): CSM Satu Mare
  • Model: 36.6% · Implied: 16.8% · Probability edge: +19.8 pts · Est. EV: +5.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga II Liga II — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Slatina 8 7 1 0 22
2 FC Politehnica Timisoara 8 6 2 0 20
3 CSM Reşiţa 8 6 0 2 18
4 FC Bacau 8 4 3 1 15
5 Chindia Targoviste 8 5 0 3 15
6 Popești-Leordeni 8 4 3 1 15
7 Concordia 8 5 0 3 15
8 Metalul Buzău 8 4 2 2 14
9 CS Afumati 8 4 2 2 14
10 Cetatea Suceava 8 3 3 2 12
11 Gloria Bistriţa 8 4 0 4 12
12 Metaloglobus 8 3 2 3 11
13 ASA Targu Mures 8 3 2 3 11
14 CSM Ramnicu Valcea 8 3 2 3 11
15 Bihor Oradea 8 2 3 3 9
16 Viitorul Şelimbăr 8 1 3 4 6
17 Ştefăneşti 8 2 0 6 6
18 CSA Steaua Bucureşti 8 1 2 5 5
19 Unirea Slobozia 8 1 1 6 4
20 CSM Satu Mare 8 0 4 4 4
21 Dumbrăviţa 8 0 3 5 3
22 CS Dinamo București 8 1 0 7 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 FC Bacau 8 19 8 +11 15
2 Popești-Leordeni 8 19 14 +5 15
3 FC Politehnica Timisoara 8 18 7 +11 20
4 Slatina 8 17 5 +12 22
5 Chindia Targoviste 8 17 8 +9 15
6 Concordia 8 17 13 +4 15
7 Cetatea Suceava 8 15 11 +4 12
8 CSM Reşiţa 8 13 8 +5 18
9 Bihor Oradea 8 13 10 +3 9
10 Gloria Bistriţa 8 12 10 +2 12
11 CS Afumati 8 12 12 0 14
12 ASA Targu Mures 8 12 15 -3 11
13 Metaloglobus 8 11 12 -1 11
14 Unirea Slobozia 8 11 12 -1 4
15 CSM Ramnicu Valcea 8 10 13 -3 11
16 Metalul Buzău 8 9 7 +2 14
17 CSA Steaua Bucureşti 8 9 17 -8 5
18 CS Dinamo București 8 9 27 -18 3
19 Viitorul Şelimbăr 8 7 14 -7 6
20 Ştefăneşti 8 6 15 -9 6
21 Dumbrăviţa 8 5 16 -11 3
22 CSM Satu Mare 8 3 10 -7 4