The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).
The model had projected São Gonçalo EC RJ at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 São Gonçalo EC RJ Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| São Gonçalo EC RJ | 36.1% | 21.9% | +14.2 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 29.6% | 29.6% | +0.0 pp | Aligned |
| Sampaio Corrêa RJ | 34.2% | 48.5% | -14.2 pp | Market Higher |
The statistical model estimates São Gonçalo EC RJ's win probability at 36.1%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 21.9%, a difference of 14.2 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.
Market Assessment
The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on São Gonçalo EC RJ.
- The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned São Gonçalo EC RJ; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on São Gonçalo EC RJ by 14.2 percentage points (21.9% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 05, 2026 · 17:44 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · São Gonçalo EC RJ 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Sampaio Corrêa RJ 34.2%
- xG · São Gonçalo EC RJ 1.32 — Sampaio Corrêa RJ 1.28
-
Aug 05, 2026 · 17:14 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · São Gonçalo EC RJ 4.05 · Draw 2.99 · Sampaio Corrêa RJ 1.83
- Implied 1X2 · São Gonçalo EC RJ 21.9% · Draw 29.6% · Sampaio Corrêa RJ 48.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 05, 2026 · 17:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · São Gonçalo EC RJ 4.05 · Draw 2.99 · Sampaio Corrêa RJ 1.83
- Implied 1X2 · São Gonçalo EC RJ 21.9% · Draw 29.6% · Sampaio Corrêa RJ 48.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 05, 2026 · 17:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (14 pp)
- Statistical edge detected
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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