AI correctly predicted the CFRJ / Maricá win.
The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 CFRJ / Maricá CFRJ / Maricá ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 1-0 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CFRJ / Maricá | 42.9% | 34.6% | +8.3 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.2% | 33.1% | -3.9 pp | Aligned |
| Boavista SC | 27.9% | 32.3% | -4.4 pp | Aligned |
The statistical model estimates CFRJ / Maricá's win probability at 42.9%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 34.6%, a difference of 8.3 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (CFRJ / Maricá win 1–0).
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on CFRJ / Maricá.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced CFRJ / Maricá more conservatively (34.6% vs model 42.9%, 8.3 pp), but the model's lean was validated (CFRJ / Maricá win 1–0).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 05, 2026 · 17:44 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · CFRJ / Maricá 42.9% · Draw 29.2% · Boavista SC 27.9%
- xG · CFRJ / Maricá 1.46 — Boavista SC 1.14
-
Aug 05, 2026 · 17:14 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · CFRJ / Maricá 2.57 · Draw 2.69 · Boavista SC 2.75
- Implied 1X2 · CFRJ / Maricá 34.6% · Draw 33.1% · Boavista SC 32.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 05, 2026 · 17:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · CFRJ / Maricá 2.57 · Draw 2.69 · Boavista SC 2.75
- Implied 1X2 · CFRJ / Maricá 34.6% · Draw 33.1% · Boavista SC 32.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 05, 2026 · 17:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result CFRJ / Maricá win · 1–0
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FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
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Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- Statistical edge detected
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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