The model missed the final outcome (Freienbach win 0–1).
The model had projected Widnau at 35.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
F
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Widnau Freienbach ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Correct
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned Widnau; match finished Freienbach
Market lesson
The full-time result was Freienbach win 0–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
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Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 21, 2026 · 01:13 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Widnau 1.30 — Freienbach 1.30
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Freienbach win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidence
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Freienbach win · Widnau 0–1 Freienbach
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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1. Liga Classic - Group 3 — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tuggen | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 19 |
| 2 | Baden | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 |
| 3 | St. Gallen II | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 |
| 4 | Thalwil | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 5 | Taverne | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 6 | Kosova | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 13 |
| 7 | Dietikon | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 8 | Collina d'Oro | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 9 | Winterthur II | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 10 | Gossau | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 11 | Mendrisio | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| 12 | Eschen / Mauren | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 13 | Freienbach | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 14 | Wettswil-Bonstetten | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
| 15 | Widnau | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 16 | Locarno | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Taverne | 8 | 21 | 11 | +10 | 14 |
| 2 | Tuggen | 8 | 19 | 8 | +11 | 19 |
| 3 | St. Gallen II | 8 | 18 | 15 | +3 | 16 |
| 4 | Baden | 7 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 16 |
| 5 | Thalwil | 8 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 15 |
| 6 | Kosova | 8 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 13 |
| 7 | Dietikon | 8 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 11 |
| 8 | Mendrisio | 8 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 7 |
| 9 | Freienbach | 7 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 6 |
| 10 | Winterthur II | 7 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Wettswil-Bonstetten | 8 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 6 |
| 12 | Eschen / Mauren | 7 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 7 |
| 13 | Gossau | 8 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 8 |
| 14 | Collina d'Oro | 8 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 11 |
| 15 | Locarno | 7 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 3 |
| 16 | Widnau | 7 | 3 | 12 | -9 | 5 |
