The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).
The model had projected Southampton W at 40.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Southampton W Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-0 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton W | 40.9% | 53.8% | -12.9 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.4% | 24.5% | +4.9 pp | Aligned |
| Ipswich Town W | 29.7% | 21.7% | +8.0 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Southampton W's win probability at 53.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 40.9%, a difference of 12.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Southampton W than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Southampton W; match finished Draw
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Southampton W by 12.9 percentage points (53.8% vs model 40.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 13, 2026 · 13:03 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Southampton W 41.0% · Draw 29.4% · Ipswich Town W 29.6%
- xG · Southampton W 1.42 — Ipswich Town W 1.18
-
Sep 13, 2026 · 12:34 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Southampton W 1.70 · Draw 3.74 · Ipswich Town W 4.21
- Implied 1X2 · Southampton W 53.8% · Draw 24.5% · Ipswich Town W 21.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 13, 2026 · 13:03 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Southampton W 1.70 · Draw 3.74 · Ipswich Town W 4.21
- Implied 1X2 · Southampton W 53.8% · Draw 24.5% · Ipswich Town W 21.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 13, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (13 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Women's Championship — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newcastle United W | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | Sunderland W | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | Wolverhampton W | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 4 | Leicester City WFC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Southampton W | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 6 | Nottingham Forest W | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 7 | Ipswich Town W | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 8 | Bristol City W | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 9 | Watford W | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 10 | Burnley W | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 11 | Durham W | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 12 | Sheffield United W | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newcastle United W | 3 | 7 | 1 | +6 | 9 |
| 2 | Sunderland W | 3 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 7 |
| 3 | Wolverhampton W | 3 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 6 |
| 4 | Bristol City W | 4 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 4 |
| 5 | Leicester City WFC | 3 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 6 |
| 6 | Nottingham Forest W | 3 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 5 |
| 7 | Durham W | 3 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 0 |
| 8 | Southampton W | 3 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 5 |
| 9 | Watford W | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2 |
| 10 | Ipswich Town W | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 5 |
| 11 | Sheffield United W | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 0 |
| 12 | Burnley W | 4 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 2 |
