Predictions / Football / Italy. Serie C - Girone C / Crotone vs Foggia

Prediction Audit: Crotone vs Foggia Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Crotone Crotone
Aug 24, 2026 - 19:00
0 1.46
1 1.14
xG Accuracy: 64%
Foggia Foggia

The model missed the final outcome (Foggia win 0–1).

The model had projected Crotone at 42.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Crotone Foggia ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Draw +0.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Crotone 42.9% 42.9% -0.1 pp Aligned
Draw 29.2% 28.8% +0.4 pp Aligned
Foggia 27.9% 28.3% -0.3 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Foggia win 0–1.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Crotone; match finished Foggia

Market lesson

The full-time result was Foggia win 0–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 24, 2026 · 18:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Crotone 42.9% · Draw 29.2% · Foggia 27.9%
    • xG · Crotone 1.46 — Foggia 1.14
  2. Aug 24, 2026 · 18:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Crotone 2.16 · Draw 3.22 · Foggia 3.28
    • Implied 1X2 · Crotone 42.9% · Draw 28.8% · Foggia 28.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 24, 2026 · 18:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Crotone 2.16 · Draw 3.22 · Foggia 3.28
    • Implied 1X2 · Crotone 42.9% · Draw 28.8% · Foggia 28.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 24, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Foggia win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 79/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 98/100
Betting Confidence 82/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 18, 2026 · 02:35 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4457158

Closing Odds 3.22
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Foggia win · Crotone 0–1 Foggia
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Serie C - Girone C
  • Fixture: Crotone vs Foggia
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-24 19:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 42.9% · Draw 29.2% · Away 27.9%
  • xG (showing): Crotone 1.46 — Foggia 1.14 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.8% · No 46.2%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.8% · No 46.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming Serie C - Girone C Matches Track Crotone Next Match Prediction Track Foggia Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for Crotone & Foggia!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
Serie C - Girone C Serie C - Girone C — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Bari 7 5 1 1 16
2 Sorrento 6 5 0 1 15
3 Potenza 6 4 1 1 13
4 AZ Picerno 7 4 0 3 12
5 Casertana 6 3 3 0 12
6 Audace Cerignola 7 3 1 3 10
7 Inter U23 6 3 1 2 10
8 Casarano 6 3 1 2 10
9 Salernitana 7 2 3 2 9
10 SS Monopoli 6 2 2 2 8
11 Cavese 7 2 2 3 8
12 Catania 6 2 1 3 7
13 Barletta 6 1 4 1 7
14 Scafatese 6 1 4 1 7
15 Team Altamura 6 2 1 3 7
16 Savoia 7 1 3 3 6
17 Foggia 6 1 2 3 5
18 Giugliano 6 1 1 4 4
19 Cosenza 7 0 2 5 2
20 Crotone 7 1 3 3 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 AZ Picerno 7 14 11 +3 12
2 Potenza 6 13 8 +5 13
3 Cavese 7 12 14 -2 8
4 Audace Cerignola 7 11 7 +4 10
5 Casertana 6 11 8 +3 12
6 Inter U23 6 11 11 0 10
7 Giugliano 6 11 16 -5 4
8 Bari 7 10 4 +6 16
9 Sorrento 6 10 5 +5 15
10 Catania 6 10 8 +2 7
11 Salernitana 7 10 9 +1 9
12 Barletta 6 10 9 +1 7
13 Casarano 6 10 10 0 10
14 Savoia 7 9 11 -2 6
15 Scafatese 6 8 9 -1 7
16 Crotone 7 7 10 -3 0
17 SS Monopoli 6 5 4 +1 8
18 Cosenza 7 5 16 -11 2
19 Foggia 6 4 7 -3 5
20 Team Altamura 6 4 8 -4 7
Serie C - Girone C Italy. Serie C - Girone C Predictions