Predictions / Football / Italy. Serie C - Girone B / Città di Campobasso vs Torres

Prediction Audit: Città di Campobasso vs Torres Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Città di Campobasso Città di Campobasso
Oct 04, 2026 - 12:30
1 1.42
1 1.18
xG Accuracy: 85%
Torres Torres

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Città di Campobasso at 40.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Città di Campobasso Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Torres -3.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Città di Campobasso 40.9% 38.0% +2.9 pp Aligned
Draw 29.4% 28.6% +0.8 pp Aligned
Torres 29.7% 33.4% -3.7 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • 1X2: model leaned Città di Campobasso; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 1–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Oct 04, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Città di Campobasso 41.0% · Draw 29.4% · Torres 29.6%
    • xG · Città di Campobasso 1.42 — Torres 1.18
  2. Oct 04, 2026 · 12:02 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Città di Campobasso 2.44 · Draw 3.24 · Torres 2.78
    • Implied 1X2 · Città di Campobasso 38.0% · Draw 28.6% · Torres 33.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Oct 04, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Città di Campobasso 2.44 · Draw 3.24 · Torres 2.78
    • Implied 1X2 · Città di Campobasso 38.0% · Draw 28.6% · Torres 33.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Oct 04, 2026 · 12:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 77/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 81/100
Betting Confidence 80/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 01:19 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11665564

Closing Odds 2.78
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Città di Campobasso 1–1 Torres
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Serie C - Girone B
  • Fixture: Città di Campobasso vs Torres
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-04 12:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.0% · Draw 29.4% · Away 29.6%
  • xG (showing): Città di Campobasso 1.42 — Torres 1.18 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 47.9% · Probability edge: +3.9 pts · Est. EV: +5.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 06, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie C - Girone B Serie C - Girone B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Spezia 7 6 1 0 19
2 Ravenna 7 5 2 0 17
3 Grosseto 8 4 3 1 15
4 Reggiana 7 4 2 1 14
5 Livorno 8 4 2 2 14
6 Perugia 8 4 1 3 13
7 Città di Campobasso 7 3 2 2 11
8 Torres 7 3 2 2 11
9 Pescara 8 3 2 3 11
10 Forli 8 2 4 2 10
11 Guidonia Montecelio 1937 7 2 3 2 9
12 Atalanta II 6 3 0 3 9
13 Vado 8 2 2 4 8
14 Ostia Mare 7 2 1 4 7
15 Pineto 7 1 4 2 7
16 Gubbio 8 2 1 5 7
17 Sambenedettese 8 1 2 5 5
18 Latina 6 1 2 3 5
19 Vis Pesaro 7 1 1 5 4
20 Pianese 7 0 3 4 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Spezia 7 14 4 +10 19
2 Grosseto 8 14 7 +7 15
3 Forli 8 13 12 +1 10
4 Ravenna 7 12 2 +10 17
5 Reggiana 7 12 6 +6 14
6 Città di Campobasso 7 11 10 +1 11
7 Sambenedettese 8 11 14 -3 5
8 Livorno 8 10 9 +1 14
9 Pescara 8 10 11 -1 11
10 Gubbio 8 10 16 -6 7
11 Guidonia Montecelio 1937 7 9 7 +2 9
12 Perugia 8 9 12 -3 13
13 Torres 7 8 8 0 11
14 Ostia Mare 7 8 9 -1 7
15 Vis Pesaro 7 8 16 -8 4
16 Atalanta II 6 7 9 -2 9
17 Vado 8 6 8 -2 8
18 Pineto 7 6 10 -4 7
19 Latina 6 5 8 -3 5
20 Pianese 7 4 9 -5 3
Serie C - Girone B Italy. Serie C - Girone B Predictions