AI correctly predicted the Ravenna win.
The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Ravenna Ravenna ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-0 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ravenna | 42.9% | 67.8% | -25.0 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.2% | 20.1% | +9.1 pp | Model Higher |
| Gubbio | 27.9% | 12.1% | +15.9 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Ravenna's win probability at 67.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 42.9%, a difference of 25.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Ravenna win 2–0).
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 2–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Ravenna higher (67.9% vs model 42.9%, 25.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Ravenna win 2–0).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 12:30 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Ravenna 42.9% · Draw 29.2% · Gubbio 27.9%
- xG · Ravenna 1.46 — Gubbio 1.14
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 12:02 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Ravenna 1.37 · Draw 4.62 · Gubbio 7.71
- Implied 1X2 · Ravenna 67.8% · Draw 20.1% · Gubbio 12.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 12:30 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Ravenna 1.37 · Draw 4.62 · Gubbio 7.71
- Implied 1X2 · Ravenna 67.8% · Draw 20.1% · Gubbio 12.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 12:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Ravenna win · 2–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (25 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Serie C - Girone B — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spezia | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 19 |
| 2 | Ravenna | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 17 |
| 3 | Grosseto | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
| 4 | Reggiana | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 5 | Livorno | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 6 | Città di Campobasso | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 7 | Torres | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 8 | Forli | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Perugia | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 10 | Guidonia Montecelio 1937 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 11 | Atalanta II | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 12 | Pescara | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 13 | Ostia Mare | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 14 | Gubbio | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 15 | Pineto | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 16 | Latina | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 17 | Vado | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 18 | Vis Pesaro | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| 19 | Pianese | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| 20 | Sambenedettese | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spezia | 7 | 14 | 4 | +10 | 19 |
| 2 | Grosseto | 7 | 13 | 4 | +9 | 15 |
| 3 | Forli | 7 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 10 |
| 4 | Ravenna | 7 | 12 | 2 | +10 | 17 |
| 5 | Reggiana | 7 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 14 |
| 6 | Città di Campobasso | 7 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 11 |
| 7 | Livorno | 7 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 14 |
| 8 | Guidonia Montecelio 1937 | 7 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 9 |
| 9 | Pescara | 7 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | Gubbio | 7 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 7 |
| 11 | Torres | 7 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 11 |
| 12 | Ostia Mare | 7 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 7 |
| 13 | Sambenedettese | 7 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 2 |
| 14 | Vis Pesaro | 7 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 4 |
| 15 | Atalanta II | 6 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 9 |
| 16 | Pineto | 7 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 7 |
| 17 | Perugia | 7 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 10 |
| 18 | Latina | 6 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 5 |
| 19 | Vado | 7 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 5 |
| 20 | Pianese | 7 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 3 |
