The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).
The model had projected Città di Campobasso at 43.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Città di Campobasso Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-2 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Città di Campobasso | 43.4% | 43.1% | +0.2 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.1% | 29.9% | -0.8 pp | Aligned |
| Pineto | 27.5% | 27.0% | +0.5 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Draw 2–2.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Città di Campobasso; match finished Draw
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The full-time result was Draw 2–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Città di Campobasso 43.3% · Draw 29.2% · Pineto 27.5%
- xG · Città di Campobasso 1.47 — Pineto 1.13
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 15:21 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE10
- 1X2 odds · Città di Campobasso 2.15 · Draw 3.10 · Pineto 3.44
- Implied 1X2 · Città di Campobasso 43.1% · Draw 29.9% · Pineto 27.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Città di Campobasso 2.15 · Draw 3.10 · Pineto 3.44
- Implied 1X2 · Città di Campobasso 43.1% · Draw 29.9% · Pineto 27.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Serie C - Girone B — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spezia | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 19 |
| 2 | Ravenna | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 17 |
| 3 | Grosseto | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
| 4 | Reggiana | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 5 | Livorno | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 6 | Città di Campobasso | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 7 | Torres | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 8 | Forli | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Perugia | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 10 | Guidonia Montecelio 1937 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 11 | Atalanta II | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 12 | Pescara | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 13 | Ostia Mare | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 14 | Gubbio | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 15 | Pineto | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 16 | Latina | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 17 | Vado | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 18 | Vis Pesaro | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| 19 | Pianese | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| 20 | Sambenedettese | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spezia | 7 | 14 | 4 | +10 | 19 |
| 2 | Grosseto | 7 | 13 | 4 | +9 | 15 |
| 3 | Forli | 7 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 10 |
| 4 | Ravenna | 7 | 12 | 2 | +10 | 17 |
| 5 | Reggiana | 7 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 14 |
| 6 | Città di Campobasso | 7 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 11 |
| 7 | Livorno | 7 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 14 |
| 8 | Guidonia Montecelio 1937 | 7 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 9 |
| 9 | Pescara | 7 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | Gubbio | 7 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 7 |
| 11 | Torres | 7 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 11 |
| 12 | Ostia Mare | 7 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 7 |
| 13 | Sambenedettese | 7 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 2 |
| 14 | Vis Pesaro | 7 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 4 |
| 15 | Atalanta II | 6 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 9 |
| 16 | Pineto | 7 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 7 |
| 17 | Perugia | 7 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 10 |
| 18 | Latina | 6 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 5 |
| 19 | Vado | 7 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 5 |
| 20 | Pianese | 7 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 3 |
