Predictions / Football / Italy. Serie C - Girone B / Città di Campobasso vs Pianese

Prediction Audit: Città di Campobasso vs Pianese Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Città di Campobasso Città di Campobasso
Aug 23, 2026 - 16:00
2 1.39
0 1.21
xG Accuracy: 61%
Pianese Pianese

AI correctly predicted the Città di Campobasso win.

The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Città di Campobasso Città di Campobasso ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Pianese considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Pianese +10.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Città di Campobasso 39.5% 49.1% -9.6 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.5% 30.3% -0.8 pp Aligned
Pianese 31.0% 20.6% +10.4 pp Model Edge

The statistical model estimates Pianese's win probability at 31.0%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 20.6%, a difference of 10.4 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Città di Campobasso win 2–0).

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Pianese.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Città di Campobasso more conservatively (29.1% vs model 39.5%, 10.4 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Città di Campobasso win 2–0).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 23, 2026 · 16:01 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Città di Campobasso 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · Pianese 31.0%
    • xG · Città di Campobasso 1.39 — Pianese 1.21
  2. Aug 23, 2026 · 15:36 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Città di Campobasso 1.88 · Draw 3.05 · Pianese 4.47
    • Implied 1X2 · Città di Campobasso 49.1% · Draw 30.3% · Pianese 20.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 23, 2026 · 16:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Città di Campobasso 1.88 · Draw 3.05 · Pianese 4.47
    • Implied 1X2 · Città di Campobasso 49.1% · Draw 30.3% · Pianese 20.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 23, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Città di Campobasso win · 2–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 58/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (10 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 48/100
Betting Confidence 46/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 17, 2026 · 01:41 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4368892

Closing Odds 4.47
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Città di Campobasso win · Città di Campobasso 2–0 Pianese
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Serie C - Girone B
  • Fixture: Città di Campobasso vs Pianese
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-23 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.0%
  • xG (showing): Città di Campobasso 1.39 — Pianese 1.21 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +0.1%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie C - Girone B Serie C - Girone B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Spezia 4 3 1 0 10
2 Reggiana 4 2 2 0 8
3 Grosseto 4 2 2 0 8
4 Guidonia Montecelio 1937 4 2 1 1 7
5 Forli 4 2 1 1 7
6 Perugia 3 2 1 0 7
7 Livorno 4 2 1 1 7
8 Gubbio 4 2 0 2 6
9 Città di Campobasso 4 2 0 2 6
10 Atalanta II 4 2 0 2 6
11 Ravenna 3 1 2 0 5
12 Pineto 4 1 2 1 5
13 Vado 4 1 1 2 4
14 Pescara 4 1 1 2 4
15 Latina 4 1 1 2 4
16 Ostia Mare 3 1 0 2 3
17 Torres 3 1 0 2 3
18 Pianese 4 0 2 2 2
19 Sambenedettese 4 0 1 3 1
20 Vis Pesaro 4 0 1 3 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Forli 4 10 8 +2 7
2 Gubbio 4 8 8 0 6
3 Reggiana 4 7 4 +3 8
4 Spezia 4 6 2 +4 10
5 Guidonia Montecelio 1937 4 6 3 +3 7
6 Pescara 4 6 8 -2 4
7 Grosseto 4 5 2 +3 8
8 Perugia 3 5 3 +2 7
9 Città di Campobasso 4 5 5 0 6
10 Ravenna 3 4 2 +2 5
11 Atalanta II 4 4 5 -1 6
12 Latina 4 4 6 -2 4
13 Sambenedettese 4 4 7 -3 1
14 Vis Pesaro 4 4 8 -4 1
15 Livorno 4 3 3 0 7
16 Pineto 4 3 3 0 5
17 Vado 4 3 4 -1 4
18 Ostia Mare 3 3 4 -1 3
19 Torres 3 2 4 -2 3
20 Pianese 4 0 3 -3 2
Serie C - Girone B Italy. Serie C - Girone B Predictions