Prediction Audit: Union Brescia vs Dolomiti Bellunesi Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Union Brescia

Sep 27, 2026 - 12:30

1 1.49

1 1.11

xG Accuracy: 85%

Dolomiti Bellunesi

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Union Brescia at 44.3%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Union Brescia Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Union Brescia	44.3%	67.7%	-23.4 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.0%	21.4%	+7.6 pp	Model Higher
Dolomiti Bellunesi	26.6%	10.8%	+15.8 pp	Model Edge

The closing market estimates Union Brescia's win probability at 67.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 44.3%, a difference of 23.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
1X2: model leaned Union Brescia; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Union Brescia by 23.4 percentage points (67.7% vs model 44.3%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Sep 27, 2026 · 12:30 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Union Brescia 44.3% · Draw 29.0% · Dolomiti Bellunesi 26.7%
- xG · Union Brescia 1.49 — Dolomiti Bellunesi 1.11
Sep 27, 2026 · 12:02 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Union Brescia 1.37 · Draw 4.33 · Dolomiti Bellunesi 8.56
- Implied 1X2 · Union Brescia 67.7% · Draw 21.4% · Dolomiti Bellunesi 10.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 27, 2026 · 12:30 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Union Brescia 1.37 · Draw 4.33 · Dolomiti Bellunesi 8.56
- Implied 1X2 · Union Brescia 67.7% · Draw 21.4% · Dolomiti Bellunesi 10.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 27, 2026 · 12:30 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 51/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (23 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Pricing remains divergent
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100

Betting Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 06:45 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10143370

Closing Odds 1.37

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · Union Brescia 1–1 Dolomiti Bellunesi

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Serie C - Girone A
Fixture: Union Brescia vs Dolomiti Bellunesi
Kickoff: 2026-09-27 12:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 44.3% · Draw 29.0% · Away 26.7%
xG (showing): Union Brescia 1.49 — Dolomiti Bellunesi 1.11 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.5% · No 46.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 53.5% · No 46.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie C - Girone A — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Cittadella	7	7	0	0	21
2	Union Brescia	7	4	3	0	15
3	Ospitaletto	7	4	2	1	14
4	Arzignano Valchiampo	7	4	1	2	13
5	Trento	7	3	4	0	13
6	Treviso	7	3	3	1	12
7	Alcione	7	2	4	1	10
8	Dolomiti Bellunesi	7	2	4	1	10
9	Albinoleffe	7	2	3	2	9
10	Lumezzane	7	2	2	3	8
11	Lecco	7	2	2	3	8
12	Desenzano Calvina	7	1	4	2	7
13	Pergolettese	7	1	4	2	7
14	Athletic Carpi	7	1	3	3	6
15	Folgore Caratese	7	1	3	3	6
16	Juventus U23	7	1	3	3	6
17	Novara	7	1	3	3	6
18	PRO Vercelli	7	1	3	3	6
19	Giana Erminio	7	0	3	4	3
20	Renate	7	0	2	5	2

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Cittadella	7	13	2	+11	21
2	Ospitaletto	7	13	5	+8	14
3	Union Brescia	7	12	4	+8	15
4	Arzignano Valchiampo	7	10	7	+3	13
5	Albinoleffe	7	10	9	+1	9
6	Alcione	7	10	11	-1	10
7	Athletic Carpi	7	10	15	-5	6
8	Trento	7	9	3	+6	13
9	Treviso	7	8	6	+2	12
10	Folgore Caratese	7	8	10	-2	6
11	Lumezzane	7	7	9	-2	8
12	Juventus U23	7	7	13	-6	6
13	Dolomiti Bellunesi	7	6	5	+1	10
14	Novara	7	6	9	-3	6
15	Giana Erminio	7	6	10	-4	3
16	PRO Vercelli	7	6	11	-5	6
17	Renate	7	5	11	-6	2
18	Lecco	7	4	6	-2	8
19	Desenzano Calvina	7	4	6	-2	7
20	Pergolettese	7	1	3	-2	7