Predictions / Football / Italy. Serie C - Girone A / Giana Erminio vs Dolomiti Bellunesi

Prediction Audit: Giana Erminio vs Dolomiti Bellunesi Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Giana Erminio Giana Erminio
Sep 06, 2026 - 13:00
1 1.44
2 1.16
xG Accuracy: 70%
Dolomiti Bellunesi Dolomiti Bellunesi

The model missed the final outcome (Dolomiti Bellunesi win 1–2).

The model had projected Giana Erminio at 41.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Giana Erminio Dolomiti Bellunesi ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 1-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Draw +0.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Giana Erminio 41.9% 42.1% -0.2 pp Aligned
Draw 29.3% 28.9% +0.4 pp Aligned
Dolomiti Bellunesi 28.8% 29.1% -0.2 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was Dolomiti Bellunesi win 1–2.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Giana Erminio; match finished Dolomiti Bellunesi
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The full-time result was Dolomiti Bellunesi win 1–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 06, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Giana Erminio 41.9% · Draw 29.3% · Dolomiti Bellunesi 28.8%
    • xG · Giana Erminio 1.44 — Dolomiti Bellunesi 1.16
  2. Sep 06, 2026 · 12:34 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Giana Erminio 2.23 · Draw 3.25 · Dolomiti Bellunesi 3.23
    • Implied 1X2 · Giana Erminio 42.1% · Draw 28.9% · Dolomiti Bellunesi 29.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 06, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Giana Erminio 2.23 · Draw 3.25 · Dolomiti Bellunesi 3.23
    • Implied 1X2 · Giana Erminio 42.1% · Draw 28.9% · Dolomiti Bellunesi 29.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 06, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Dolomiti Bellunesi win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 79/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 97/100
Betting Confidence 82/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 07:03 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6356040

Closing Odds 3.25
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Dolomiti Bellunesi win · Giana Erminio 1–2 Dolomiti Bellunesi
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Serie C - Girone A
  • Fixture: Giana Erminio vs Dolomiti Bellunesi
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-06 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.9% · Draw 29.3% · Away 28.8%
  • xG (showing): Giana Erminio 1.44 — Dolomiti Bellunesi 1.16 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.0% · Implied: 44.0% · Probability edge: +10.0 pts · Est. EV: +18.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie C - Girone A Serie C - Girone A — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Cittadella 7 7 0 0 21
2 Union Brescia 7 4 3 0 15
3 Ospitaletto 7 4 2 1 14
4 Arzignano Valchiampo 7 4 1 2 13
5 Trento 7 3 4 0 13
6 Treviso 7 3 3 1 12
7 Alcione 7 2 4 1 10
8 Dolomiti Bellunesi 7 2 4 1 10
9 Albinoleffe 7 2 3 2 9
10 Lumezzane 7 2 2 3 8
11 Lecco 7 2 2 3 8
12 Desenzano Calvina 7 1 4 2 7
13 Pergolettese 7 1 4 2 7
14 Athletic Carpi 7 1 3 3 6
15 Folgore Caratese 7 1 3 3 6
16 Juventus U23 7 1 3 3 6
17 Novara 7 1 3 3 6
18 PRO Vercelli 7 1 3 3 6
19 Giana Erminio 7 0 3 4 3
20 Renate 7 0 2 5 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Cittadella 7 13 2 +11 21
2 Ospitaletto 7 13 5 +8 14
3 Union Brescia 7 12 4 +8 15
4 Arzignano Valchiampo 7 10 7 +3 13
5 Albinoleffe 7 10 9 +1 9
6 Alcione 7 10 11 -1 10
7 Athletic Carpi 7 10 15 -5 6
8 Trento 7 9 3 +6 13
9 Treviso 7 8 6 +2 12
10 Folgore Caratese 7 8 10 -2 6
11 Lumezzane 7 7 9 -2 8
12 Juventus U23 7 7 13 -6 6
13 Dolomiti Bellunesi 7 6 5 +1 10
14 Novara 7 6 9 -3 6
15 Giana Erminio 7 6 10 -4 3
16 PRO Vercelli 7 6 11 -5 6
17 Renate 7 5 11 -6 2
18 Lecco 7 4 6 -2 8
19 Desenzano Calvina 7 4 6 -2 7
20 Pergolettese 7 1 3 -2 7
Serie C - Girone A Italy. Serie C - Girone A Predictions