Prediction Audit: Pergolettese vs Union Brescia Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Pergolettese

Aug 30, 2026 - 19:00

0 1.21

1 1.39

xG Accuracy: 64%

Union Brescia

AI correctly predicted the Union Brescia win.

The match finished 0–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Union Brescia Union Brescia ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Pergolettese	31.0%	12.6%	+18.4 pp	Model Edge
Draw	29.5%	23.1%	+6.5 pp	Model Higher
Union Brescia	39.5%	64.4%	-24.9 pp	Market Higher

The closing market estimates Union Brescia's win probability at 64.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.5%, a difference of 24.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Union Brescia win 0–1).

Post Match Insights

What worked

Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Union Brescia higher (64.4% vs model 39.5%, 24.9 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Union Brescia win 0–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 30, 2026 · 18:58 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Pergolettese 31.0% · Draw 29.5% · Union Brescia 39.5%
- xG · Pergolettese 1.21 — Union Brescia 1.39
Aug 30, 2026 · 18:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Pergolettese 7.37 · Draw 4.02 · Union Brescia 1.44
- Implied 1X2 · Pergolettese 12.6% · Draw 23.1% · Union Brescia 64.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 30, 2026 · 18:58 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Pergolettese 7.37 · Draw 4.02 · Union Brescia 1.44
- Implied 1X2 · Pergolettese 12.6% · Draw 23.1% · Union Brescia 64.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 30, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Union Brescia win · 0–1
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 51/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (25 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Pricing remains divergent
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100

Betting Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 24, 2026 · 02:41 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5304166

Closing Odds 1.44

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Union Brescia win · Pergolettese 0–1 Union Brescia

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Serie C - Girone A
Fixture: Pergolettese vs Union Brescia
Kickoff: 2026-08-30 19:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 31.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 39.5%
xG (showing): Pergolettese 1.21 — Union Brescia 1.39 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie C - Girone A — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Cittadella	7	7	0	0	21
2	Union Brescia	7	4	3	0	15
3	Ospitaletto	7	4	2	1	14
4	Arzignano Valchiampo	7	4	1	2	13
5	Trento	7	3	4	0	13
6	Treviso	7	3	3	1	12
7	Alcione	7	2	4	1	10
8	Dolomiti Bellunesi	7	2	4	1	10
9	Albinoleffe	7	2	3	2	9
10	Lumezzane	7	2	2	3	8
11	Lecco	7	2	2	3	8
12	Desenzano Calvina	7	1	4	2	7
13	Pergolettese	7	1	4	2	7
14	Athletic Carpi	7	1	3	3	6
15	Folgore Caratese	7	1	3	3	6
16	Juventus U23	7	1	3	3	6
17	Novara	7	1	3	3	6
18	PRO Vercelli	7	1	3	3	6
19	Giana Erminio	7	0	3	4	3
20	Renate	7	0	2	5	2

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Cittadella	7	13	2	+11	21
2	Ospitaletto	7	13	5	+8	14
3	Union Brescia	7	12	4	+8	15
4	Arzignano Valchiampo	7	10	7	+3	13
5	Albinoleffe	7	10	9	+1	9
6	Alcione	7	10	11	-1	10
7	Athletic Carpi	7	10	15	-5	6
8	Trento	7	9	3	+6	13
9	Treviso	7	8	6	+2	12
10	Folgore Caratese	7	8	10	-2	6
11	Lumezzane	7	7	9	-2	8
12	Juventus U23	7	7	13	-6	6
13	Dolomiti Bellunesi	7	6	5	+1	10
14	Novara	7	6	9	-3	6
15	Giana Erminio	7	6	10	-4	3
16	PRO Vercelli	7	6	11	-5	6
17	Renate	7	5	11	-6	2
18	Lecco	7	4	6	-2	8
19	Desenzano Calvina	7	4	6	-2	7
20	Pergolettese	7	1	3	-2	7