Predictions / Football / Austria. Regionalliga - North / Kuchl vs Wals-Grünau

Prediction Audit: Kuchl vs Wals-Grünau Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Kuchl Kuchl
Aug 21, 2026 - 17:00
2 1.32
2 1.28
xG Accuracy: 68%
Wals-Grünau Wals-Grünau

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).

The model had projected Kuchl at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Kuchl Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Kuchl; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 2–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 15, 2026 · 01:45 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Kuchl 1.32 — Wals-Grünau 1.28
  2. Aug 21, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 15, 2026 · 01:45 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4030117

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Kuchl 2–2 Wals-Grünau
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Regionalliga - North
  • Fixture: Kuchl vs Wals-Grünau
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-21 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Kuchl 1.32 — Wals-Grünau 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 14, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Predictions
Regionalliga - North Regionalliga - North — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Wals-Grünau 11 6 5 0 23
2 Wallern / Marienkirchen 10 7 1 2 22
3 LASK Juniors 10 6 2 2 20
4 Gurten 11 5 3 3 18
5 Bad Schallerbach 10 5 2 3 17
6 Kuchl 10 5 2 3 17
7 Grödig 10 5 1 4 16
8 SK Vorwarts Steyr 10 4 2 4 14
9 TSV St. Johann 10 4 2 4 14
10 Seekirchen 11 3 3 5 12
11 Ried II 11 3 2 6 11
12 Leonfelden 10 2 4 4 10
13 Wohnbau Dietach 10 2 2 6 8
14 UFC Hallein 10 1 3 6 6
15 Pinzgau Saalfelden 10 1 2 7 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Wallern / Marienkirchen 10 29 10 +19 22
2 LASK Juniors 10 29 10 +19 20
3 Wals-Grünau 11 23 13 +10 23
4 Bad Schallerbach 10 23 14 +9 17
5 Kuchl 10 21 17 +4 17
6 Gurten 11 18 11 +7 18
7 Grödig 10 17 13 +4 16
8 Leonfelden 10 17 23 -6 10
9 SK Vorwarts Steyr 10 13 12 +1 14
10 Seekirchen 11 12 17 -5 12
11 Pinzgau Saalfelden 10 12 24 -12 5
12 Ried II 11 12 26 -14 11
13 TSV St. Johann 10 11 15 -4 14
14 Wohnbau Dietach 10 11 29 -18 8
15 UFC Hallein 10 10 24 -14 6
Regionalliga - North Austria. Regionalliga - North Predictions