The model missed the final outcome (SV Lafnitz win 1–3).
The model had projected Gleisdorf 09 at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Gleisdorf 09 SV Lafnitz ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-3 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gleisdorf 09 | 36.1% | 36.6% | -0.5 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 24.4% | +5.2 pp | Model Higher |
| SV Lafnitz | 34.2% | 39.0% | -4.8 pp | Aligned |
The statistical model estimates Draw's win probability at 29.6%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 24.4%, a difference of 5.2 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
After full time, the result was SV Lafnitz win 1–3.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Gleisdorf 09; match finished SV Lafnitz
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Gleisdorf 09 by 5.2 percentage points (30.9% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 28, 2026 · 16:58 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Gleisdorf 09 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · SV Lafnitz 34.2%
- xG · Gleisdorf 09 1.32 — SV Lafnitz 1.28
-
Aug 28, 2026 · 16:34 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Gleisdorf 09 2.43 · Draw 3.64 · SV Lafnitz 2.28
- Implied 1X2 · Gleisdorf 09 36.6% · Draw 24.4% · SV Lafnitz 39.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 28, 2026 · 16:58 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Gleisdorf 09 2.43 · Draw 3.64 · SV Lafnitz 2.28
- Implied 1X2 · Gleisdorf 09 36.6% · Draw 24.4% · SV Lafnitz 39.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 28, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result SV Lafnitz win · 1–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Regionalliga - South — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Velden | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 19 |
| 2 | Wolfsberger AC II | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 2 | Austria Klagenfurt | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 19 |
| 3 | Treibach | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 4 | Kalsdorf | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 5 | Deutschlandsberger SC | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 6 | Völkermarkt | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Weiz | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 13 |
| 8 | SV Lafnitz | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 9 | Wolfsberger AC | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 10 | Allerheiligen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 11 | Tillmitsch | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 12 | Wolfsberg | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 7 |
| 13 | Bleiburg | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| 14 | Hartberg (Am) | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
| 15 | Gleisdorf 09 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| 16 | Donau Klagenfurt | 9 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 3 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deutschlandsberger SC | 8 | 18 | 11 | +7 | 17 |
| 2 | Austria Klagenfurt | 9 | 18 | 12 | +6 | 19 |
| 3 | Treibach | 9 | 17 | 9 | +8 | 17 |
| 4 | Velden | 9 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 19 |
| 5 | Kalsdorf | 8 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 17 |
| 6 | Völkermarkt | 9 | 16 | 9 | +7 | 14 |
| 7 | SV Lafnitz | 8 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 12 |
| 8 | Allerheiligen | 8 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 9 |
| 9 | Weiz | 8 | 15 | 10 | +5 | 13 |
| 10 | Wolfsberger AC | 9 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 12 |
| 11 | Tillmitsch | 8 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 9 |
| 12 | Bleiburg | 9 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 6 |
| 13 | Hartberg (Am) | 8 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 5 |
| 14 | Gleisdorf 09 | 8 | 8 | 18 | -10 | 4 |
| 15 | Donau Klagenfurt | 9 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 3 |
| 16 | Wolfsberg | 9 | 6 | 20 | -14 | 7 |
| 17 | Wolfsberger AC II | 2 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 4 |
