Predictions / Football / Austria. Regionalliga - South / Gleisdorf 09 vs Kalsdorf

Prediction Audit: Gleisdorf 09 vs Kalsdorf Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Gleisdorf 09 Gleisdorf 09
Aug 21, 2026 - 17:00
1 1.32
2 1.28
xG Accuracy: 75%
Kalsdorf Kalsdorf

The model missed the final outcome (Kalsdorf win 1–2).

The model had projected Gleisdorf 09 at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Gleisdorf 09 Kalsdorf ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Kalsdorf higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Kalsdorf -9.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Gleisdorf 09 36.1% 31.4% +4.7 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 24.6% +5.0 pp Model Higher
Kalsdorf 34.2% 44.0% -9.8 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Kalsdorf's win probability at 44.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 9.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Kalsdorf win 1–2.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Kalsdorf. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Gleisdorf 09; match finished Kalsdorf

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Gleisdorf 09 by 9.8 percentage points (45.9% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 21, 2026 · 17:03 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Gleisdorf 09 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Kalsdorf 34.2%
    • xG · Gleisdorf 09 1.32 — Kalsdorf 1.28
  2. Aug 21, 2026 · 16:38 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Gleisdorf 09 2.83 · Draw 3.61 · Kalsdorf 2.02
    • Implied 1X2 · Gleisdorf 09 31.4% · Draw 24.6% · Kalsdorf 44.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 21, 2026 · 17:03 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Gleisdorf 09 2.83 · Draw 3.61 · Kalsdorf 2.02
    • Implied 1X2 · Gleisdorf 09 31.4% · Draw 24.6% · Kalsdorf 44.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 21, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Kalsdorf win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 74/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 17/100
Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 15, 2026 · 01:44 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4029838

Closing Odds 2.02
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Kalsdorf win · Gleisdorf 09 1–2 Kalsdorf
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Regionalliga - South
  • Fixture: Gleisdorf 09 vs Kalsdorf
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-21 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Gleisdorf 09 1.32 — Kalsdorf 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Regionalliga - South Regionalliga - South — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Velden 9 5 4 0 19
2 Wolfsberger AC II 2 1 1 0 4
2 Austria Klagenfurt 9 6 1 2 19
3 Treibach 9 5 2 2 17
4 Kalsdorf 8 5 2 1 17
5 Deutschlandsberger SC 8 5 2 1 17
6 Völkermarkt 9 4 2 3 14
7 Weiz 8 3 4 1 13
8 SV Lafnitz 8 3 3 2 12
9 Wolfsberger AC 9 3 3 3 12
10 Allerheiligen 8 2 3 3 9
11 Tillmitsch 8 2 3 3 9
12 Wolfsberg 9 1 4 4 7
13 Bleiburg 9 1 3 5 6
14 Hartberg (Am) 8 1 2 5 5
15 Gleisdorf 09 8 1 1 6 4
16 Donau Klagenfurt 9 0 3 6 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Deutschlandsberger SC 8 18 11 +7 17
2 Austria Klagenfurt 9 18 12 +6 19
3 Treibach 9 17 9 +8 17
4 Velden 9 16 7 +9 19
5 Kalsdorf 8 16 8 +8 17
6 Völkermarkt 9 16 9 +7 14
7 SV Lafnitz 8 16 16 0 12
8 Allerheiligen 8 16 16 0 9
9 Weiz 8 15 10 +5 13
10 Wolfsberger AC 9 14 15 -1 12
11 Tillmitsch 8 14 16 -2 9
12 Bleiburg 9 12 17 -5 6
13 Hartberg (Am) 8 10 18 -8 5
14 Gleisdorf 09 8 8 18 -10 4
15 Donau Klagenfurt 9 7 17 -10 3
16 Wolfsberg 9 6 20 -14 7
17 Wolfsberger AC II 2 4 2 +2 4
Regionalliga - South Austria. Regionalliga - South Predictions