The model missed the final outcome (Draw 3–3).
The model had projected Birmingham City W at 40.3%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Birmingham City W Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1, 2-0 3-3 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham City W | 40.3% | 52.7% | -12.3 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 35.8% | 25.7% | +10.0 pp | Model Edge |
| Crystal Palace W | 23.9% | 21.6% | +2.4 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Birmingham City W's win probability at 52.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 40.3%, a difference of 12.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.
After full time, the result was Draw 3–3.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Birmingham City W than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Birmingham City W by 12.3 percentage points (52.6% vs model 40.3%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 19:16 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Birmingham City W 40.3% · Draw 35.7% · Crystal Palace W 23.9%
- xG · Birmingham City W 0.82 — Crystal Palace W 0.64
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 12:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Birmingham City W 1.76 · Draw 3.60 · Crystal Palace W 4.29
- Implied 1X2 · Birmingham City W 52.7% · Draw 25.7% · Crystal Palace W 21.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 12:53 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE10
- 1X2 odds · Birmingham City W 1.76 · Draw 3.60 · Crystal Palace W 4.29
- Implied 1X2 · Birmingham City W 52.7% · Draw 25.7% · Crystal Palace W 21.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 3–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (12 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Explore More Predictions Content
Get Premium Predictions for Birmingham City W & Crystal Palace W!
Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.
Subscribe Now
FA WSL — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City W | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| 2 | London City Lionesses | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 3 | Tottenham Hotspur W | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | Chelsea W | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 5 | Everton W | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 6 | Arsenal W | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 7 | Liverpool W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | Crystal Palace W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 9 | West Ham W | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 10 | Aston Villa W | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 11 | Brighton W | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 12 | Birmingham City W | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 13 | Manchester United W | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 14 | Charlton Athletic W | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City W | 4 | 12 | 4 | +8 | 12 |
| 2 | Tottenham Hotspur W | 3 | 11 | 2 | +9 | 7 |
| 3 | London City Lionesses | 4 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 9 |
| 4 | Chelsea W | 3 | 8 | 1 | +7 | 7 |
| 5 | Liverpool W | 3 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 4 |
| 6 | West Ham W | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 3 |
| 7 | Aston Villa W | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 2 |
| 8 | Brighton W | 4 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 2 |
| 9 | Birmingham City W | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 1 |
| 10 | Everton W | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 6 |
| 11 | Arsenal W | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 5 |
| 12 | Manchester United W | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 1 |
| 13 | Crystal Palace W | 3 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 4 |
| 14 | Charlton Athletic W | 4 | 1 | 10 | -9 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | xG | xGC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | London City Lionesses | 4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | +1.0 | 9 |
| 2 | Manchester United W | 3 | 0.2 | 1.2 | -1.0 | 1 |
| 3 | Manchester City W | 4 | — | — | — | 12 |
| 4 | Tottenham Hotspur W | 3 | — | — | — | 7 |
| 5 | Chelsea W | 3 | — | — | — | 7 |
| 6 | Everton W | 3 | — | — | — | 6 |
| 7 | Arsenal W | 3 | — | — | — | 5 |
| 8 | Liverpool W | 3 | — | — | — | 4 |
| 9 | Crystal Palace W | 3 | — | — | — | 4 |
| 10 | West Ham W | 3 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 11 | Aston Villa W | 3 | — | — | — | 2 |
| 12 | Brighton W | 4 | — | — | — | 2 |
| 13 | Birmingham City W | 3 | — | — | — | 1 |
| 14 | Charlton Athletic W | 4 | — | — | — | 0 |
