The model missed the final outcome (London City Lionesses win 1–4).
The model had projected Charlton Athletic W at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Charlton Athletic W London City Lionesses ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-4 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlton Athletic W | 35.6% | 8.7% | +26.9 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 29.6% | 12.7% | +16.9 pp | Model Edge |
| London City Lionesses | 34.7% | 78.6% | -43.9 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates London City Lionesses's win probability at 78.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.7%, a difference of 43.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was London City Lionesses win 1–4.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Charlton Athletic W; match finished London City Lionesses
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Charlton Athletic W by 43.9 percentage points (79.5% vs model 35.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 11:31 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Charlton Athletic W 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · London City Lionesses 34.7%
- xG · Charlton Athletic W 1.31 — London City Lionesses 1.29
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 11:05 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Charlton Athletic W 10.66 · Draw 7.29 · London City Lionesses 1.18
- Implied 1X2 · Charlton Athletic W 8.7% · Draw 12.7% · London City Lionesses 78.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 11:31 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Charlton Athletic W 10.66 · Draw 7.29 · London City Lionesses 1.18
- Implied 1X2 · Charlton Athletic W 8.7% · Draw 12.7% · London City Lionesses 78.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 11:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result London City Lionesses win · 1–4
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Fail
- Large market gap (44 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation failed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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FA WSL — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City W | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| 2 | London City Lionesses | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 3 | Tottenham Hotspur W | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | Chelsea W | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 5 | Everton W | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 6 | Arsenal W | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 7 | Liverpool W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | Crystal Palace W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 9 | West Ham W | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 10 | Aston Villa W | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 11 | Brighton W | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 12 | Birmingham City W | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 13 | Manchester United W | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 14 | Charlton Athletic W | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City W | 4 | 12 | 4 | +8 | 12 |
| 2 | Tottenham Hotspur W | 3 | 11 | 2 | +9 | 7 |
| 3 | London City Lionesses | 4 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 9 |
| 4 | Chelsea W | 3 | 8 | 1 | +7 | 7 |
| 5 | Liverpool W | 3 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 4 |
| 6 | West Ham W | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 3 |
| 7 | Aston Villa W | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 2 |
| 8 | Brighton W | 4 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 2 |
| 9 | Birmingham City W | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 1 |
| 10 | Everton W | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 6 |
| 11 | Arsenal W | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 5 |
| 12 | Manchester United W | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 1 |
| 13 | Crystal Palace W | 3 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 4 |
| 14 | Charlton Athletic W | 4 | 1 | 10 | -9 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | xG | xGC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | London City Lionesses | 4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | +1.0 | 9 |
| 2 | Manchester United W | 3 | 0.2 | 1.2 | -1.0 | 1 |
| 3 | Manchester City W | 4 | — | — | — | 12 |
| 4 | Tottenham Hotspur W | 3 | — | — | — | 7 |
| 5 | Chelsea W | 3 | — | — | — | 7 |
| 6 | Everton W | 3 | — | — | — | 6 |
| 7 | Arsenal W | 3 | — | — | — | 5 |
| 8 | Liverpool W | 3 | — | — | — | 4 |
| 9 | Crystal Palace W | 3 | — | — | — | 4 |
| 10 | West Ham W | 3 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 11 | Aston Villa W | 3 | — | — | — | 2 |
| 12 | Brighton W | 4 | — | — | — | 2 |
| 13 | Birmingham City W | 3 | — | — | — | 1 |
| 14 | Charlton Athletic W | 4 | — | — | — | 0 |
