The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Chelsea W at 44.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Chelsea W Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 1-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea W | 44.8% | 71.1% | -26.3 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 28.9% | 16.1% | +12.8 pp | Model Edge |
| Aston Villa W | 26.2% | 12.8% | +13.4 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Chelsea W's win probability at 71.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 44.8%, a difference of 26.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Chelsea W; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Chelsea W by 26.3 percentage points (71.1% vs model 44.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 11:30 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Chelsea W 44.8% · Draw 29.0% · Aston Villa W 26.2%
- xG · Chelsea W 1.50 — Aston Villa W 1.10
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 11:04 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Chelsea W 1.27 · Draw 5.60 · Aston Villa W 7.06
- Implied 1X2 · Chelsea W 71.1% · Draw 16.1% · Aston Villa W 12.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 11:30 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Chelsea W 1.27 · Draw 5.60 · Aston Villa W 7.06
- Implied 1X2 · Chelsea W 71.1% · Draw 16.1% · Aston Villa W 12.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 11:35 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (26 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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FA WSL — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City W | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| 2 | London City Lionesses | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 3 | Tottenham Hotspur W | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | Chelsea W | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 5 | Everton W | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 6 | Arsenal W | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 7 | Liverpool W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | Crystal Palace W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 9 | West Ham W | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 10 | Aston Villa W | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 11 | Brighton W | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 12 | Birmingham City W | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 13 | Manchester United W | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 14 | Charlton Athletic W | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City W | 4 | 12 | 4 | +8 | 12 |
| 2 | Tottenham Hotspur W | 3 | 11 | 2 | +9 | 7 |
| 3 | London City Lionesses | 4 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 9 |
| 4 | Chelsea W | 3 | 8 | 1 | +7 | 7 |
| 5 | Liverpool W | 3 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 4 |
| 6 | West Ham W | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 3 |
| 7 | Aston Villa W | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 2 |
| 8 | Brighton W | 4 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 2 |
| 9 | Birmingham City W | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 1 |
| 10 | Everton W | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 6 |
| 11 | Arsenal W | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 5 |
| 12 | Manchester United W | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 1 |
| 13 | Crystal Palace W | 3 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 4 |
| 14 | Charlton Athletic W | 4 | 1 | 10 | -9 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | xG | xGC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | London City Lionesses | 4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | +1.0 | 9 |
| 2 | Manchester United W | 3 | 0.2 | 1.2 | -1.0 | 1 |
| 3 | Manchester City W | 4 | — | — | — | 12 |
| 4 | Tottenham Hotspur W | 3 | — | — | — | 7 |
| 5 | Chelsea W | 3 | — | — | — | 7 |
| 6 | Everton W | 3 | — | — | — | 6 |
| 7 | Arsenal W | 3 | — | — | — | 5 |
| 8 | Liverpool W | 3 | — | — | — | 4 |
| 9 | Crystal Palace W | 3 | — | — | — | 4 |
| 10 | West Ham W | 3 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 11 | Aston Villa W | 3 | — | — | — | 2 |
| 12 | Brighton W | 4 | — | — | — | 2 |
| 13 | Birmingham City W | 3 | — | — | — | 1 |
| 14 | Charlton Athletic W | 4 | — | — | — | 0 |
