Predictions / Football / World. CONMEBOL Sudamericana / Bolívar vs Sao Paulo

Prediction Audit: Bolívar vs Sao Paulo Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Bolívar Bolívar
Aug 12, 2026 - 00:30
1 1.65
1 1.23
xG Accuracy: 78%
Sao Paulo Sao Paulo

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Bolívar at 47.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Bolívar Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 2-0, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Bolívar -4.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Bolívar 47.8% 52.4% -4.6 pp Aligned
Draw 27.2% 26.6% +0.5 pp Aligned
Sao Paulo 25.1% 21.0% +4.1 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Bolívar; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 1–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 12, 2026 · 19:05 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Bolívar 47.8% · Draw 27.1% · Sao Paulo 25.0%
    • xG · Bolívar 1.65 — Sao Paulo 1.23
  2. Aug 11, 2026 · 23:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Bolívar 1.81 · Draw 3.56 · Sao Paulo 4.52
    • Implied 1X2 · Bolívar 52.4% · Draw 26.6% · Sao Paulo 21.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 12, 2026 · 00:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Bolívar 1.81 · Draw 3.56 · Sao Paulo 4.52
    • Implied 1X2 · Bolívar 52.4% · Draw 26.6% · Sao Paulo 21.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 12, 2026 · 00:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 77/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 76/100
Betting Confidence 80/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 06, 2026 · 01:01 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3090357

Closing Odds 1.81
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Bolívar 1–1 Sao Paulo
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: CONMEBOL Sudamericana
  • Fixture: Bolívar vs Sao Paulo
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-12 00:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): Bolívar 1.65 — Sao Paulo 1.23 (total xG ≈ 2.88)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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CONMEBOL Sudamericana CONMEBOL Sudamericana — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Macara 6 2 4 0 10
2 Tigre 6 2 3 1 9
3 America de Cali 6 2 3 1 9
4 Alianza Atletico 6 0 2 4 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Tigre 6 8 5 +3 9
2 Macara 6 6 3 +3 10
3 America de Cali 6 6 5 +1 9
4 Alianza Atletico 6 2 9 -7 2
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Tigre 6 4.1 3.0 +1.1 9
2 Macara 6 1.2 1.6 -0.4 10
3 America de Cali 6 — — — 9
4 Alianza Atletico 6 — — — 2