The model missed the final outcome (Maccabi Tel Aviv win 1–3).
The model had projected CSKA Sofia at 40.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
F
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 CSKA Sofia Maccabi Tel Aviv ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 1-3 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSKA Sofia | 40.4% | 39.4% | +1.0 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.4% | 28.5% | +1.0 pp | Aligned |
| Maccabi Tel Aviv | 30.1% | 32.1% | -2.0 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Maccabi Tel Aviv win 1–3.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned CSKA Sofia; match finished Maccabi Tel Aviv
Market lesson
The full-time result was Maccabi Tel Aviv win 1–3, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 13, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · CSKA Sofia 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Maccabi Tel Aviv 30.1%
- xG · CSKA Sofia 1.41 — Maccabi Tel Aviv 1.19
-
Aug 13, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · CSKA Sofia 2.42 · Draw 3.35 · Maccabi Tel Aviv 2.97
- Implied 1X2 · CSKA Sofia 39.4% · Draw 28.5% · Maccabi Tel Aviv 32.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 13, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · CSKA Sofia 2.42 · Draw 3.35 · Maccabi Tel Aviv 2.97
- Implied 1X2 · CSKA Sofia 39.4% · Draw 28.5% · Maccabi Tel Aviv 32.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 13, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Maccabi Tel Aviv win · 1–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
78/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidence
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
90/100
Betting Confidence
81/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.97
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Maccabi Tel Aviv win · CSKA Sofia 1–3 Maccabi Tel Aviv
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Explore More Predictions Content
Get Premium Predictions for CSKA Sofia & Maccabi Tel Aviv!
Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.
Subscribe Now
UEFA Europa League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Juventus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Crystal Palace | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Sparta Praha | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Besiktas | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Union St. Gilloise | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | Ferencvarosi TC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Benfica | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Bayer Leverkusen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | OFI | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | Bournemouth | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 11 | Lyon | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 12 | Torreense | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 13 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 14 | Red Bull Salzburg | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 15 | Sunderland | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 16 | Omonia Nicosia | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 17 | Sturm Graz | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 18 | Rennes | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 19 | Dinamo Zagreb | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 20 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 21 | Jagiellonia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 22 | Real Sociedad | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 23 | Anderlecht | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 24 | Lillestrom | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 25 | Celta Vigo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 26 | AZ Alkmaar | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 27 | Levski Sofia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 28 | Celtic | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 29 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 30 | AC Milan | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 31 | Celje | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 32 | Marseille | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 33 | Ararat-Armenia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 34 | Plzen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 35 | Lech Poznan | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 36 | NEC Nijmegen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Juventus | 1 | 5 | 0 | +5 | 3 |
| 2 | Crystal Palace | 1 | 4 | 0 | +4 | 3 |
| 3 | Sparta Praha | 1 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 3 |
| 4 | Besiktas | 1 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 3 |
| 5 | Union St. Gilloise | 1 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 6 | Ferencvarosi TC | 1 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 7 | Benfica | 1 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 8 | Bayer Leverkusen | 1 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 9 | OFI | 1 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 10 | Bournemouth | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 11 | Lyon | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 12 | Torreense | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 13 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 14 | Red Bull Salzburg | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 15 | Sunderland | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 16 | Omonia Nicosia | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 17 | Jagiellonia | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 18 | Real Sociedad | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 19 | Anderlecht | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 20 | Lillestrom | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 21 | Celtic | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 |
| 22 | Marseille | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 0 |
| 23 | Ararat-Armenia | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 0 |
| 24 | Sturm Graz | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 25 | Rennes | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 26 | Dinamo Zagreb | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 27 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 28 | Celta Vigo | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 29 | AZ Alkmaar | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 30 | Levski Sofia | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 31 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 32 | AC Milan | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 33 | Celje | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 34 | Plzen | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
| 35 | Lech Poznan | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 0 |
| 36 | NEC Nijmegen | 1 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | xG | xGC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 1 | 2.5 | 0.5 | +2.0 | 3 |
| 2 | Sunderland | 1 | 2.9 | 1.5 | +1.4 | 3 |
| 3 | Bayer Leverkusen | 1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | +1.0 | 3 |
| 4 | Rennes | 1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | +1.0 | 1 |
| 5 | Celta Vigo | 1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | +0.9 | 0 |
| 6 | Sparta Praha | 1 | 2.5 | 1.9 | +0.6 | 3 |
| 7 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | +0.5 | 1 |
| 8 | AC Milan | 1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | +0.4 | 0 |
| 9 | Anderlecht | 1 | 1.4 | 1.3 | +0.1 | 0 |
| 10 | Lyon | 1 | 1.3 | 1.4 | -0.1 | 3 |
| 11 | Benfica | 1 | 0.6 | 1.0 | -0.4 | 3 |
| 12 | Dinamo Zagreb | 1 | 0.3 | 0.8 | -0.5 | 1 |
| 13 | Ararat-Armenia | 1 | 1.9 | 2.5 | -0.6 | 0 |
| 14 | Omonia Nicosia | 1 | 0.3 | 1.2 | -0.9 | 3 |
| 15 | Celje | 1 | 0.9 | 1.9 | -1.0 | 0 |
| 16 | Sturm Graz | 1 | 0.8 | 1.8 | -1.0 | 1 |
| 17 | AZ Alkmaar | 1 | 1.5 | 2.9 | -1.4 | 0 |
| 18 | Jagiellonia | 1 | 0.5 | 2.5 | -2.0 | 0 |
| 19 | Juventus | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 20 | Crystal Palace | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 21 | Besiktas | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 22 | Union St. Gilloise | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 23 | Ferencvarosi TC | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 24 | OFI | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 25 | Bournemouth | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 26 | Torreense | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 27 | Red Bull Salzburg | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 28 | Real Sociedad | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
| 29 | Lillestrom | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
| 30 | Levski Sofia | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
| 31 | Celtic | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
| 32 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
| 33 | Marseille | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
| 34 | Plzen | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
| 35 | Lech Poznan | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
| 36 | NEC Nijmegen | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
