Predictions / Football / India. Calcutta Premier Division / Calcutta Customs vs Mohun Bagan

Prediction Audit: Calcutta Customs vs Mohun Bagan Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Calcutta Customs Calcutta Customs
Aug 01, 2026 - 09:30
1 1.29
0 1.31
xG Accuracy: 64%
Mohun Bagan Mohun Bagan

The model missed the final outcome (Calcutta Customs win 1–0).

The model had projected Mohun Bagan at 42.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Mohun Bagan Calcutta Customs ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Mohun Bagan higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Mohun Bagan -14.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Calcutta Customs 29.6% 19.6% +10.1 pp Model Edge
Draw 28.4% 24.3% +4.1 pp Aligned
Mohun Bagan 42.0% 56.1% -14.2 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Mohun Bagan's win probability at 56.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 42.0%, a difference of 14.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Calcutta Customs win 1–0.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Mohun Bagan than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Mohun Bagan; match finished Calcutta Customs

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Mohun Bagan by 14.2 percentage points (56.2% vs model 42.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 01, 2026 · 18:36 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Calcutta Customs 29.6% · Draw 28.4% · Mohun Bagan 42.0%
    • xG · Calcutta Customs 1.29 — Mohun Bagan 1.31
  2. Aug 01, 2026 · 09:00 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Calcutta Customs 4.53 · Draw 3.65 · Mohun Bagan 1.58
    • Implied 1X2 · Calcutta Customs 19.6% · Draw 24.3% · Mohun Bagan 56.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 01, 2026 · 09:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Calcutta Customs 4.53 · Draw 3.65 · Mohun Bagan 1.58
    • Implied 1X2 · Calcutta Customs 19.6% · Draw 24.3% · Mohun Bagan 56.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 01, 2026 · 09:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Calcutta Customs win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (14 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 29/100
Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 01, 2026 · 01:19 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2670051

Closing Odds 1.58
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Calcutta Customs win · Calcutta Customs 1–0 Mohun Bagan
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Calcutta Premier Division
  • Fixture: Calcutta Customs vs Mohun Bagan
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-01 09:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): Calcutta Customs 1.29 — Mohun Bagan 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Calcutta Premier Division Calcutta Premier Division — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 East Bengal 14 9 5 0 32
2 Bhawanipore 14 9 4 1 31
3 Mohun Bagan 14 9 3 2 30
4 Mohammedan 14 7 4 3 25
5 United 14 6 5 3 23
6 Coal India 14 6 4 4 22
7 Peerless 11 6 2 3 20
8 Aryan 11 5 4 2 19
9 Calcutta Customs 11 5 3 3 18
10 Calcutta Police 11 5 3 3 18
11 Police 11 4 5 2 17
12 United Kolkata 11 4 4 3 16
13 Measurers 11 3 6 2 15
14 Kalighat 11 4 2 5 14
15 Railway 11 4 2 5 14
16 Kidderpore 11 2 6 3 12
17 BSS Sporting 11 3 3 5 12
18 Patha Chakra 11 3 1 7 10
19 NA Suruchi Sangha 11 2 3 6 9
20 Rainbow 11 2 1 8 7
21 Wari 11 1 4 6 7
22 George Telegraph 11 2 1 8 7
23 Kalighat Club 11 0 3 8 3
24 Bidhannagar 11 0 2 9 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 East Bengal 14 35 8 +27 32
2 Mohun Bagan 14 35 10 +25 30
3 United 14 25 10 +15 23
4 Bhawanipore 14 24 7 +17 31
5 Calcutta Customs 11 24 12 +12 18
6 Mohammedan 14 23 16 +7 25
7 United Kolkata 11 22 16 +6 16
8 Measurers 11 21 17 +4 15
9 Peerless 11 20 9 +11 20
10 Railway 11 20 20 0 14
11 Coal India 14 19 22 -3 22
12 Aryan 11 18 6 +12 19
13 Kalighat 11 18 13 +5 14
14 BSS Sporting 11 17 21 -4 12
15 Kidderpore 11 15 18 -3 12
16 Calcutta Police 11 13 11 +2 18
17 Police 11 13 11 +2 17
18 Rainbow 11 13 31 -18 7
19 Patha Chakra 11 12 32 -20 10
20 NA Suruchi Sangha 11 11 20 -9 9
21 Wari 11 9 28 -19 7
22 George Telegraph 11 7 33 -26 7
23 Bidhannagar 11 5 31 -26 2
24 Kalighat Club 11 4 21 -17 3