The model missed the final outcome (Metropolitanos FC win 2–1).
The model had projected Puerto Cabello at 39.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Puerto Cabello Metropolitanos FC ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metropolitanos FC | 31.5% | 28.1% | +3.4 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.5% | 32.2% | -2.6 pp | Aligned |
| Puerto Cabello | 39.0% | 39.8% | -0.8 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Metropolitanos FC win 2–1.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Puerto Cabello; match finished Metropolitanos FC
Market lesson
The full-time result was Metropolitanos FC win 2–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 02, 2026 · 22:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Metropolitanos FC 31.5% · Draw 29.5% · Puerto Cabello 39.0%
- xG · Metropolitanos FC 1.22 — Puerto Cabello 1.38
-
Aug 02, 2026 · 21:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Metropolitanos FC 3.27 · Draw 2.81 · Puerto Cabello 2.19
- Implied 1X2 · Metropolitanos FC 27.4% · Draw 31.8% · Puerto Cabello 40.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 02, 2026 · 22:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Metropolitanos FC 3.19 · Draw 2.78 · Puerto Cabello 2.25
- Implied 1X2 · Metropolitanos FC 28.1% · Draw 32.2% · Puerto Cabello 39.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 02, 2026 · 22:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Metropolitanos FC win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Primera División — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Metropolitanos FC | 24 | 16 | 5 | 3 | 53 |
| 2 | Deportivo Tachira FC | 24 | 14 | 5 | 5 | 47 |
| 3 | Real Esppor Club | 24 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 43 |
| 4 | UCV | 24 | 11 | 5 | 8 | 38 |
| 5 | Carabobo FC | 24 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 37 |
| 6 | Portuguesa FC | 24 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 37 |
| 7 | Puerto Cabello | 24 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 36 |
| 8 | Estudiantes de Merida FC | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 36 |
| 9 | Caracas FC | 24 | 5 | 11 | 8 | 26 |
| 10 | Monagas SC | 24 | 7 | 4 | 13 | 25 |
| 11 | Zamora FC | 24 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 25 |
| 12 | Rayo Zuliano | 24 | 7 | 4 | 13 | 25 |
| 13 | Trujillanos FC | 24 | 3 | 6 | 15 | 15 |
| 14 | Academia Anzoátegui | 24 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 14 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Metropolitanos FC | 24 | 41 | 19 | +22 | 53 |
| 2 | Deportivo Tachira FC | 24 | 41 | 26 | +15 | 47 |
| 3 | Real Esppor Club | 24 | 36 | 22 | +14 | 43 |
| 4 | UCV | 24 | 36 | 31 | +5 | 38 |
| 5 | Carabobo FC | 24 | 35 | 22 | +13 | 37 |
| 6 | Portuguesa FC | 24 | 34 | 24 | +10 | 37 |
| 7 | Estudiantes de Merida FC | 24 | 33 | 30 | +3 | 36 |
| 8 | Puerto Cabello | 24 | 31 | 23 | +8 | 36 |
| 9 | Rayo Zuliano | 24 | 30 | 46 | -16 | 25 |
| 10 | Monagas SC | 24 | 26 | 35 | -9 | 25 |
| 11 | Caracas FC | 24 | 24 | 31 | -7 | 26 |
| 12 | Zamora FC | 24 | 24 | 35 | -11 | 25 |
| 13 | Trujillanos FC | 24 | 21 | 44 | -23 | 15 |
| 14 | Academia Anzoátegui | 24 | 21 | 45 | -24 | 14 |
