Predictions / Football / Tunisia. Ligue 1 / US Monastirienne vs US Ben Guerdane

Prediction Audit: US Monastirienne vs US Ben Guerdane Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

US Monastirienne US Monastirienne
Sep 12, 2026 - 15:00
3 1.44
3 1.16
xG Accuracy: 39%
US Ben Guerdane US Ben Guerdane

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 3–3).

The model had projected US Monastirienne at 41.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 US Monastirienne Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 3-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices US Monastirienne higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: US Monastirienne -12.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
US Monastirienne 41.9% 54.5% -12.6 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.3% 28.3% +1.0 pp Aligned
US Ben Guerdane 28.8% 17.2% +11.6 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates US Monastirienne's win probability at 54.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.9%, a difference of 12.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 3–3.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about US Monastirienne than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned US Monastirienne; match finished Draw
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on US Monastirienne by 12.6 percentage points (54.5% vs model 41.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 12, 2026 · 15:02 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · US Monastirienne 41.9% · Draw 29.3% · US Ben Guerdane 28.8%
    • xG · US Monastirienne 1.44 — US Ben Guerdane 1.16
  2. Sep 12, 2026 · 14:35 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · US Monastirienne 1.68 · Draw 3.23 · US Ben Guerdane 5.32
    • Implied 1X2 · US Monastirienne 54.5% · Draw 28.3% · US Ben Guerdane 17.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 12, 2026 · 15:02 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · US Monastirienne 1.68 · Draw 3.23 · US Ben Guerdane 5.32
    • Implied 1X2 · US Monastirienne 54.5% · Draw 28.3% · US Ben Guerdane 17.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 12, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 3–3
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (13 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 37/100
Betting Confidence 45/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 02:26 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7461410

Closing Odds 1.68
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · US Monastirienne 3–3 US Ben Guerdane
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Ligue 1
  • Fixture: US Monastirienne vs US Ben Guerdane
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-12 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.9% · Draw 29.3% · Away 28.8%
  • xG (showing): US Monastirienne 1.44 — US Ben Guerdane 1.16 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 33.8% · Probability edge: +14.4 pts · Est. EV: +56.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Ligue 1 Ligue 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Club Africain 3 3 0 0 9
2 ES Tunis 4 3 0 1 9
3 US Ben Guerdane 4 2 2 0 8
4 CS Sfaxien 4 2 2 0 8
5 US Monastirienne 4 2 2 0 8
6 Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 4 2 2 0 8
7 Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 4 2 1 1 7
8 CA Bizertin 4 2 1 1 7
9 Stade Tunisien 3 1 1 1 4
10 ES Sahel 4 1 1 2 4
11 AS Marsa 4 1 1 2 4
12 ES Zarzis 4 1 0 3 3
13 ES Metlaoui 4 1 0 3 3
14 Olympique Béja 4 0 2 2 2
15 ES Hammam-Sousse 4 0 1 3 1
16 CS Hammam-Lif 4 0 0 4 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 US Ben Guerdane 4 7 5 +2 8
2 US Monastirienne 4 7 5 +2 8
3 ES Tunis 4 7 6 +1 9
4 CS Sfaxien 4 6 3 +3 8
5 Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 4 5 4 +1 7
6 Stade Tunisien 3 5 4 +1 4
7 ES Sahel 4 5 6 -1 4
8 Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 4 4 1 +3 8
9 Club Africain 3 3 0 +3 9
10 CA Bizertin 4 3 3 0 7
11 ES Zarzis 4 3 5 -2 3
12 Olympique Béja 4 3 5 -2 2
13 AS Marsa 4 2 3 -1 4
14 ES Metlaoui 4 2 4 -2 3
15 ES Hammam-Sousse 4 1 5 -4 1
16 CS Hammam-Lif 4 0 4 -4 0