Predictions / Football / Tunisia. Ligue 1 / Jeunesse Sportive Omrane vs ES Metlaoui

Prediction Audit: Jeunesse Sportive Omrane vs ES Metlaoui Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
Sep 13, 2026 - 15:00
1 1.27
0 1.33
xG Accuracy: 64%
ES Metlaoui ES Metlaoui

The model missed the final outcome (Jeunesse Sportive Omrane win 1–0).

The model had projected ES Metlaoui at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 ES Metlaoui Jeunesse Sportive Omrane ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates ES Metlaoui considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: ES Metlaoui +10.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 33.8% 40.3% -6.6 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 33.3% -3.6 pp Aligned
ES Metlaoui 36.6% 26.4% +10.2 pp Model Edge

The statistical model estimates ES Metlaoui's win probability at 36.6%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 26.4%, a difference of 10.2 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was Jeunesse Sportive Omrane win 1–0.

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on ES Metlaoui.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on ES Metlaoui by 10.2 percentage points (26.4% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 13, 2026 · 14:56 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · ES Metlaoui 36.6%
    • xG · Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 1.27 — ES Metlaoui 1.33
  2. Sep 13, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 2.27 · Draw 2.75 · ES Metlaoui 3.47
    • Implied 1X2 · Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 40.3% · Draw 33.3% · ES Metlaoui 26.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 13, 2026 · 14:56 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 2.27 · Draw 2.75 · ES Metlaoui 3.47
    • Implied 1X2 · Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 40.3% · Draw 33.3% · ES Metlaoui 26.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 13, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Jeunesse Sportive Omrane win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 58/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (10 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 16/100
Monitoring Confidence 20/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 02:26 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7461375

Closing Odds 3.47
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Jeunesse Sportive Omrane win · Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 1–0 ES Metlaoui
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Ligue 1
  • Fixture: Jeunesse Sportive Omrane vs ES Metlaoui
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-13 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Away 36.6%
  • xG (showing): Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 1.27 — ES Metlaoui 1.33 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 32.8% · Probability edge: +15.4 pts · Est. EV: +42.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Ligue 1 Ligue 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Club Africain 3 3 0 0 9
2 ES Tunis 4 3 0 1 9
3 US Ben Guerdane 4 2 2 0 8
4 CS Sfaxien 4 2 2 0 8
5 US Monastirienne 4 2 2 0 8
6 Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 4 2 2 0 8
7 Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 4 2 1 1 7
8 CA Bizertin 4 2 1 1 7
9 Stade Tunisien 3 1 1 1 4
10 ES Sahel 4 1 1 2 4
11 AS Marsa 4 1 1 2 4
12 ES Zarzis 4 1 0 3 3
13 ES Metlaoui 4 1 0 3 3
14 Olympique Béja 4 0 2 2 2
15 ES Hammam-Sousse 4 0 1 3 1
16 CS Hammam-Lif 4 0 0 4 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 US Ben Guerdane 4 7 5 +2 8
2 US Monastirienne 4 7 5 +2 8
3 ES Tunis 4 7 6 +1 9
4 CS Sfaxien 4 6 3 +3 8
5 Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 4 5 4 +1 7
6 Stade Tunisien 3 5 4 +1 4
7 ES Sahel 4 5 6 -1 4
8 Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 4 4 1 +3 8
9 Club Africain 3 3 0 +3 9
10 CA Bizertin 4 3 3 0 7
11 ES Zarzis 4 3 5 -2 3
12 Olympique Béja 4 3 5 -2 2
13 AS Marsa 4 2 3 -1 4
14 ES Metlaoui 4 2 4 -2 3
15 ES Hammam-Sousse 4 1 5 -4 1
16 CS Hammam-Lif 4 0 4 -4 0