Predictions / Football / Tunisia. Ligue 1 / CS Hammam-Lif vs ES Tunis

Prediction Audit: CS Hammam-Lif vs ES Tunis Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

CS Hammam-Lif CS Hammam-Lif
Sep 13, 2026 - 15:00
0 1.11
1 1.49
xG Accuracy: 64%
ES Tunis ES Tunis

AI correctly predicted the ES Tunis win.

The match finished 0–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 ES Tunis ES Tunis ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices ES Tunis higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: ES Tunis -19.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
CS Hammam-Lif 26.6% 11.6% +15.0 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.0% 24.3% +4.8 pp Aligned
ES Tunis 44.3% 64.1% -19.8 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates ES Tunis's win probability at 64.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 44.3%, a difference of 19.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (ES Tunis win 0–1).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about ES Tunis than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • ES Tunis attacking xG significantly stronger (1.49 vs 1.11)
  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced ES Tunis higher (64.1% vs model 44.3%, 19.8 pp), but the model's lean was validated (ES Tunis win 0–1).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 13, 2026 · 14:56 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · CS Hammam-Lif 26.7% · Draw 29.0% · ES Tunis 44.3%
    • xG · CS Hammam-Lif 1.11 — ES Tunis 1.49
  2. Sep 13, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · CS Hammam-Lif 7.89 · Draw 3.78 · ES Tunis 1.43
    • Implied 1X2 · CS Hammam-Lif 11.6% · Draw 24.3% · ES Tunis 64.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 13, 2026 · 14:56 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · CS Hammam-Lif 7.89 · Draw 3.78 · ES Tunis 1.43
    • Implied 1X2 · CS Hammam-Lif 11.6% · Draw 24.3% · ES Tunis 64.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 13, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result ES Tunis win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 53/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (20 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 1/100
Betting Confidence 42/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 02:26 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7461330

Closing Odds 1.43
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result ES Tunis win · CS Hammam-Lif 0–1 ES Tunis
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Ligue 1
  • Fixture: CS Hammam-Lif vs ES Tunis
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-13 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 26.7% · Draw 29.0% · Away 44.3%
  • xG (showing): CS Hammam-Lif 1.11 — ES Tunis 1.49 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.5% · No 46.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.5% · No 46.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Ligue 1 Ligue 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Club Africain 3 3 0 0 9
2 ES Tunis 4 3 0 1 9
3 US Ben Guerdane 4 2 2 0 8
4 CS Sfaxien 4 2 2 0 8
5 US Monastirienne 4 2 2 0 8
6 Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 4 2 2 0 8
7 Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 4 2 1 1 7
8 CA Bizertin 4 2 1 1 7
9 Stade Tunisien 3 1 1 1 4
10 ES Sahel 4 1 1 2 4
11 AS Marsa 4 1 1 2 4
12 ES Zarzis 4 1 0 3 3
13 ES Metlaoui 4 1 0 3 3
14 Olympique Béja 4 0 2 2 2
15 ES Hammam-Sousse 4 0 1 3 1
16 CS Hammam-Lif 4 0 0 4 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 US Ben Guerdane 4 7 5 +2 8
2 US Monastirienne 4 7 5 +2 8
3 ES Tunis 4 7 6 +1 9
4 CS Sfaxien 4 6 3 +3 8
5 Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 4 5 4 +1 7
6 Stade Tunisien 3 5 4 +1 4
7 ES Sahel 4 5 6 -1 4
8 Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 4 4 1 +3 8
9 Club Africain 3 3 0 +3 9
10 CA Bizertin 4 3 3 0 7
11 ES Zarzis 4 3 5 -2 3
12 Olympique Béja 4 3 5 -2 2
13 AS Marsa 4 2 3 -1 4
14 ES Metlaoui 4 2 4 -2 3
15 ES Hammam-Sousse 4 1 5 -4 1
16 CS Hammam-Lif 4 0 4 -4 0