Predictions / Football / Tunisia. Ligue 1 / ES Metlaoui vs ES Hammam-Sousse

Prediction Audit: ES Metlaoui vs ES Hammam-Sousse Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

ES Metlaoui ES Metlaoui
Sep 06, 2026 - 15:30
1 1.31
0 1.29
xG Accuracy: 64%
ES Hammam-Sousse ES Hammam-Sousse

AI correctly predicted the ES Metlaoui win.

The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 ES Metlaoui ES Metlaoui ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates ES Hammam-Sousse considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: ES Hammam-Sousse +11.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
ES Metlaoui 35.6% 43.8% -8.2 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 32.8% -3.2 pp Aligned
ES Hammam-Sousse 34.7% 23.4% +11.3 pp Model Edge

The statistical model estimates ES Hammam-Sousse's win probability at 34.7%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 23.4%, a difference of 11.3 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (ES Metlaoui win 1–0).

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on ES Hammam-Sousse.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced ES Metlaoui more conservatively (24.3% vs model 35.6%, 11.3 pp), but the model's lean was validated (ES Metlaoui win 1–0).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 06, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · ES Metlaoui 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · ES Hammam-Sousse 34.7%
    • xG · ES Metlaoui 1.31 — ES Hammam-Sousse 1.29
  2. Sep 06, 2026 · 15:03 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · ES Metlaoui 2.10 · Draw 2.79 · ES Hammam-Sousse 3.90
    • Implied 1X2 · ES Metlaoui 43.6% · Draw 32.9% · ES Hammam-Sousse 23.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 06, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · ES Metlaoui 2.12 · Draw 2.83 · ES Hammam-Sousse 3.97
    • Implied 1X2 · ES Metlaoui 43.8% · Draw 32.8% · ES Hammam-Sousse 23.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 06, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result ES Metlaoui win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (11 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 43/100
Betting Confidence 45/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 30, 2026 · 03:35 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6160240

Closing Odds 3.97
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result ES Metlaoui win · ES Metlaoui 1–0 ES Hammam-Sousse
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Ligue 1
  • Fixture: ES Metlaoui vs ES Hammam-Sousse
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-06 15:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.7%
  • xG (showing): ES Metlaoui 1.31 — ES Hammam-Sousse 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 31.9% · Probability edge: +16.3 pts · Est. EV: +44.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming Ligue 1 Matches Track ES Metlaoui Next Match Prediction Track ES Hammam-Sousse Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for ES Metlaoui & ES Hammam-Sousse!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
Ligue 1 Ligue 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Club Africain 3 3 0 0 9
2 ES Tunis 4 3 0 1 9
3 US Ben Guerdane 4 2 2 0 8
4 CS Sfaxien 4 2 2 0 8
5 US Monastirienne 4 2 2 0 8
6 Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 4 2 2 0 8
7 Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 4 2 1 1 7
8 CA Bizertin 4 2 1 1 7
9 Stade Tunisien 3 1 1 1 4
10 ES Sahel 4 1 1 2 4
11 AS Marsa 4 1 1 2 4
12 ES Zarzis 4 1 0 3 3
13 ES Metlaoui 4 1 0 3 3
14 Olympique Béja 4 0 2 2 2
15 ES Hammam-Sousse 4 0 1 3 1
16 CS Hammam-Lif 4 0 0 4 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 US Ben Guerdane 4 7 5 +2 8
2 US Monastirienne 4 7 5 +2 8
3 ES Tunis 4 7 6 +1 9
4 CS Sfaxien 4 6 3 +3 8
5 Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 4 5 4 +1 7
6 Stade Tunisien 3 5 4 +1 4
7 ES Sahel 4 5 6 -1 4
8 Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 4 4 1 +3 8
9 Club Africain 3 3 0 +3 9
10 CA Bizertin 4 3 3 0 7
11 ES Zarzis 4 3 5 -2 3
12 Olympique Béja 4 3 5 -2 2
13 AS Marsa 4 2 3 -1 4
14 ES Metlaoui 4 2 4 -2 3
15 ES Hammam-Sousse 4 1 5 -4 1
16 CS Hammam-Lif 4 0 4 -4 0