Predictions / Football / World. Friendlies Clubs / Karlovac 1919 vs Trnje

Prediction Audit: Karlovac 1919 vs Trnje Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Karlovac 1919 Karlovac 1919
Aug 14, 2026 - 08:00
2 1.26
2 1.34
xG Accuracy: 68%
Trnje Trnje

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).

The model had projected Trnje at 37.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Trnje Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Karlovac 1919 higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Karlovac 1919 -20.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Karlovac 1919 33.4% 54.2% -20.8 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.4% 23.7% +5.7 pp Model Higher
Trnje 37.2% 22.1% +15.1 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Karlovac 1919's win probability at 54.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.4%, a difference of 20.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 2–2.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Trnje; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Trnje by 20.8 percentage points (58.0% vs model 37.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 14, 2026 · 07:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Karlovac 1919 33.4% · Draw 29.4% · Trnje 37.2%
    • xG · Karlovac 1919 1.26 — Trnje 1.34
  2. Aug 14, 2026 · 07:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Karlovac 1919 1.64 · Draw 3.75 · Trnje 4.02
    • Implied 1X2 · Karlovac 1919 54.2% · Draw 23.7% · Trnje 22.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 14, 2026 · 07:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Karlovac 1919 1.64 · Draw 3.75 · Trnje 4.02
    • Implied 1X2 · Karlovac 1919 54.2% · Draw 23.7% · Trnje 22.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 14, 2026 · 08:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 53/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (21 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 15/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 08, 2026 · 01:07 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3226057

Closing Odds 1.64
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Karlovac 1919 2–2 Trnje
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Friendlies Clubs
  • Fixture: Karlovac 1919 vs Trnje
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-14 08:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.4% · Draw 29.4% · Away 37.2%
  • xG (showing): Karlovac 1919 1.26 — Trnje 1.34 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming Friendlies Clubs Matches Track Karlovac 1919 Next Match Prediction Track Trnje Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for Karlovac 1919 & Trnje!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
Friendlies Clubs World. Friendlies Clubs Predictions