Predictions / Football / World. Friendlies Clubs / Antequera vs Granada CF

Prediction Audit: Antequera vs Granada CF Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Antequera Antequera
Aug 08, 2026 - 18:00
0 1.29
3 1.31
xG Accuracy: 44%
Granada CF Granada CF

AI correctly predicted the Granada CF win.

The match finished 0–3, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Granada CF Granada CF ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Granada CF higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Granada CF -9.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Antequera 34.7% 27.6% +7.1 pp Model Higher
Draw 29.6% 27.6% +2.1 pp Aligned
Granada CF 35.6% 44.8% -9.2 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Granada CF's win probability at 44.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.6%, a difference of 9.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Granada CF win 0–3).

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Granada CF. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Granada CF higher (44.8% vs model 35.6%, 9.2 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Granada CF win 0–3).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 08, 2026 · 17:58 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Antequera 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Granada CF 35.6%
    • xG · Antequera 1.29 — Granada CF 1.31
  2. Aug 08, 2026 · 17:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Antequera 3.25 · Draw 3.25 · Granada CF 2.00
    • Implied 1X2 · Antequera 27.6% · Draw 27.6% · Granada CF 44.8%
    • Bookmaker · Bet365
  3. Aug 08, 2026 · 17:58 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Antequera 3.25 · Draw 3.25 · Granada CF 2.00
    • Implied 1X2 · Antequera 27.6% · Draw 27.6% · Granada CF 44.8%
    • Bookmaker · Bet365
  4. Aug 08, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Granada CF win · 0–3
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 74/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 54/100
Betting Confidence 77/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 02, 2026 · 02:41 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2828163

Closing Odds 2.0
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Granada CF win · Antequera 0–3 Granada CF
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Friendlies Clubs
  • Fixture: Antequera vs Granada CF
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-08 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Away 35.6%
  • xG (showing): Antequera 1.29 — Granada CF 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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