Predictions / Football / World. Friendlies Clubs / Leek Town vs Runcorn Linnets

Prediction Audit: Leek Town vs Runcorn Linnets Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Leek Town Leek Town
Jul 31, 2026 - 18:45
1 1.33
1 1.27
xG Accuracy: 85%
Runcorn Linnets Runcorn Linnets

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Leek Town at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Leek Town Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Leek Town higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Leek Town -12.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Leek Town 36.6% 49.5% -12.9 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 24.2% +5.4 pp Model Higher
Runcorn Linnets 33.8% 26.3% +7.5 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Leek Town's win probability at 49.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.6%, a difference of 12.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Leek Town than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Leek Town; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Leek Town by 12.9 percentage points (49.5% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 31, 2026 · 18:46 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Leek Town 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Runcorn Linnets 33.8%
    • xG · Leek Town 1.33 — Runcorn Linnets 1.27
  2. Jul 31, 2026 · 18:16 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Leek Town 1.79 · Draw 3.66 · Runcorn Linnets 3.37
    • Implied 1X2 · Leek Town 49.5% · Draw 24.2% · Runcorn Linnets 26.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 31, 2026 · 18:46 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Leek Town 1.79 · Draw 3.66 · Runcorn Linnets 3.37
    • Implied 1X2 · Leek Town 49.5% · Draw 24.2% · Runcorn Linnets 26.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 31, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (13 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 35/100
Betting Confidence 45/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 31, 2026 · 01:42 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2555327

Closing Odds 1.79
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Leek Town 1–1 Runcorn Linnets
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Friendlies Clubs
  • Fixture: Leek Town vs Runcorn Linnets
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-31 18:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.8%
  • xG (showing): Leek Town 1.33 — Runcorn Linnets 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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