Predictions / Football / Austria. Cup / Parndorf vs Wolfsberger AC

Prediction Audit: Parndorf vs Wolfsberger AC Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Parndorf Parndorf
Sep 06, 2026 - 15:00
1(4) 1.20
1(5) 1.40
xG Accuracy: 85%
Wolfsberger AC Wolfsberger AC

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).

The model had projected Wolfsberger AC at 39.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Wolfsberger AC Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Wolfsberger AC higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Wolfsberger AC -34.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Parndorf 30.6% 10.9% +19.7 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.5% 15.1% +14.4 pp Model Edge
Wolfsberger AC 39.9% 74.0% -34.1 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Wolfsberger AC's win probability at 74.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.9%, a difference of 34.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 2–2.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Wolfsberger AC by 34.1 percentage points (74.0% vs model 39.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 06, 2026 · 15:02 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Parndorf 30.6% · Draw 29.5% · Wolfsberger AC 40.0%
    • xG · Parndorf 1.20 — Wolfsberger AC 1.40
  2. Sep 06, 2026 · 14:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Parndorf 8.09 · Draw 5.85 · Wolfsberger AC 1.19
    • Implied 1X2 · Parndorf 10.9% · Draw 15.1% · Wolfsberger AC 74.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 06, 2026 · 15:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Parndorf 8.09 · Draw 5.85 · Wolfsberger AC 1.19
    • Implied 1X2 · Parndorf 10.9% · Draw 15.1% · Wolfsberger AC 74.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 06, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 32/100 · Low
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (34 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 9/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 07:38 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6364214

Closing Odds 1.19
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Parndorf 2–2 Wolfsberger AC
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Wolfsberger AC; market prices Wolfsberger AC instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Parndorf 1.20 xG vs Wolfsberger AC 1.40 → Wolfsberger AC 39.9%
  • Market: Wolfsberger AC ~74.0% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS No (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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