Predictions / Football / World. CONMEBOL Sudamericana / Olimpia vs Vasco DA Gama

Prediction Audit: Olimpia vs Vasco DA Gama Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Olimpia Olimpia
Aug 20, 2026 - 22:00
1 1.09
4 1.56
xG Accuracy: 50%
Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama

AI correctly predicted the Vasco DA Gama win.

The match finished 1–4, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 1-4 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Vasco DA Gama considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Vasco DA Gama +13.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Olimpia 25.0% 35.6% -10.6 pp Market Higher
Draw 28.4% 31.2% -2.9 pp Aligned
Vasco DA Gama 46.6% 33.2% +13.4 pp Model Edge

The statistical model estimates Vasco DA Gama's win probability at 46.6%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 33.2%, a difference of 13.4 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Vasco DA Gama win 1–4).

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Vasco DA Gama.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.65) — 5 goals materialised
  • Vasco DA Gama attacking xG significantly stronger (1.56 vs 1.09)
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Vasco DA Gama more conservatively (33.2% vs model 46.6%, 13.4 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Vasco DA Gama win 1–4).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 20, 2026 · 21:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Olimpia 25.0% · Draw 28.4% · Vasco DA Gama 46.7%
    • xG · Olimpia 1.09 — Vasco DA Gama 1.56
  2. Aug 20, 2026 · 21:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Olimpia 2.68 · Draw 3.05 · Vasco DA Gama 2.87
    • Implied 1X2 · Olimpia 35.6% · Draw 31.2% · Vasco DA Gama 33.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 20, 2026 · 21:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Olimpia 2.68 · Draw 3.05 · Vasco DA Gama 2.87
    • Implied 1X2 · Olimpia 35.6% · Draw 31.2% · Vasco DA Gama 33.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 20, 2026 · 22:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Vasco DA Gama win · 1–4
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (13 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 11/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 14, 2026 · 07:33 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3924246

Closing Odds 2.87
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Vasco DA Gama win · Olimpia 1–4 Vasco DA Gama
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: CONMEBOL Sudamericana
  • Fixture: Olimpia vs Vasco DA Gama
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-20 22:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 25.0% · Draw 28.4% · Away 46.7%
  • xG (showing): Olimpia 1.09 — Vasco DA Gama 1.56 (total xG ≈ 2.65)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Vasco DA Gama
  • Model: 46.7% · Implied: 33.2% · Probability edge: +13.5 pts · Est. EV: +9.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.0%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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CONMEBOL Sudamericana CONMEBOL Sudamericana — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Macara 6 2 4 0 10
2 Tigre 6 2 3 1 9
3 America de Cali 6 2 3 1 9
4 Alianza Atletico 6 0 2 4 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Tigre 6 8 5 +3 9
2 Macara 6 6 3 +3 10
3 America de Cali 6 6 5 +1 9
4 Alianza Atletico 6 2 9 -7 2
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Tigre 6 4.1 3.0 +1.1 9
2 Macara 6 1.2 1.6 -0.4 10
3 America de Cali 6 — — — 9
4 Alianza Atletico 6 — — — 2