AI correctly predicted the Levski Sofia win.
The match finished 0–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
B-
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Levski Sofia Levski Sofia ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kairat Almaty | 34.2% | 33.6% | +0.7 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 31.0% | -1.3 pp | Aligned |
| Levski Sofia | 36.1% | 35.5% | +0.7 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Levski Sofia win 0–1).
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Levski Sofia win 0–1).
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 11, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Kairat Almaty 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Levski Sofia 36.1%
- xG · Kairat Almaty 1.28 — Levski Sofia 1.32
-
Aug 11, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Kairat Almaty 2.84 · Draw 3.08 · Levski Sofia 2.69
- Implied 1X2 · Kairat Almaty 33.6% · Draw 31.0% · Levski Sofia 35.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 11, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Kairat Almaty 2.84 · Draw 3.08 · Levski Sofia 2.69
- Implied 1X2 · Kairat Almaty 33.6% · Draw 31.0% · Levski Sofia 35.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 11, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Levski Sofia win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
78/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidence
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
93/100
Betting Confidence
81/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.08
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Levski Sofia win · Kairat Almaty 0–1 Levski Sofia
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
B-
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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UEFA Champions League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Bayern München | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Barcelona | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Manchester United | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Como | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | VfB Stuttgart | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Sporting CP | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Manchester City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | Aston Villa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | Lens | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 11 | Real Betis | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 12 | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 13 | Liverpool | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 14 | Real Madrid | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 15 | Arsenal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 16 | AEK Athens FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 17 | AS Roma | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 18 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 19 | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 20 | Fenerbahce | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 21 | Villarreal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 22 | Lille | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 23 | Slavia Praha | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 24 | Club Brugge KV | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 25 | Inter | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 26 | Atletico Madrid | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 27 | Napoli | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 28 | Lask Linz | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 29 | Viking | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 30 | Galatasaray | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 31 | FC Porto | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 32 | RB Leipzig | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 33 | Feyenoord | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 34 | Sabah FA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 35 | Slovan Bratislava | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 36 | Bodo/Glimt | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 1 | 6 | 1 | +5 | 3 |
| 2 | Bayern München | 1 | 5 | 0 | +5 | 3 |
| 3 | Barcelona | 1 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 3 |
| 4 | Manchester United | 1 | 4 | 0 | +4 | 3 |
| 5 | Como | 1 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 3 |
| 6 | VfB Stuttgart | 1 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 7 | Sporting CP | 1 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 8 | Aston Villa | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 3 |
| 9 | Lens | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 3 |
| 10 | Real Betis | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 3 |
| 11 | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 3 |
| 12 | Manchester City | 1 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 13 | Liverpool | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 14 | Real Madrid | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 15 | Villarreal | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 |
| 16 | Lille | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 |
| 17 | Slavia Praha | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 |
| 18 | Club Brugge KV | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 |
| 19 | Arsenal | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 20 | AEK Athens FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 21 | AS Roma | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 22 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 23 | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 24 | Fenerbahce | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 25 | Inter | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 26 | Atletico Madrid | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 27 | Viking | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 |
| 28 | Galatasaray | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 |
| 29 | RB Leipzig | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 0 |
| 30 | Feyenoord | 1 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 0 |
| 31 | Slovan Bratislava | 1 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 0 |
| 32 | Napoli | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 33 | Lask Linz | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 34 | FC Porto | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 35 | Sabah FA | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 0 |
| 36 | Bodo/Glimt | 1 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | xG | xGC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 1 | 2.3 | 0.3 | +2.0 | 3 |
| 2 | Aston Villa | 1 | 3.2 | 1.5 | +1.7 | 3 |
| 3 | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 2.8 | 1.3 | +1.5 | 3 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 1 | 2.9 | 1.8 | +1.1 | 3 |
| 5 | Real Betis | 1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | +1.0 | 3 |
| 6 | AEK Athens FC | 1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | +1.0 | 3 |
| 7 | Liverpool | 1 | 1.6 | 0.9 | +0.7 | 3 |
| 8 | Sporting CP | 1 | 1.8 | 1.2 | +0.6 | 3 |
| 9 | Galatasaray | 1 | 1.2 | 1.8 | -0.6 | 0 |
| 10 | Atletico Madrid | 1 | 0.9 | 1.6 | -0.7 | 0 |
| 11 | Lille | 1 | 0.8 | 1.8 | -1.0 | 0 |
| 12 | Lask Linz | 1 | 0.7 | 1.7 | -1.0 | 0 |
| 13 | Inter | 1 | 1.8 | 2.9 | -1.1 | 0 |
| 14 | Villarreal | 1 | 1.3 | 2.8 | -1.5 | 0 |
| 15 | Club Brugge KV | 1 | 1.5 | 3.2 | -1.7 | 0 |
| 16 | FC Porto | 1 | 0.3 | 2.3 | -2.0 | 0 |
| 17 | Paris Saint Germain | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 18 | Bayern München | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 19 | Barcelona | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 20 | Manchester United | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 21 | Como | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 22 | VfB Stuttgart | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 23 | Lens | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 24 | Arsenal | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 25 | AS Roma | 1 | — | — | — | 1 |
| 26 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 1 | — | — | — | 1 |
| 27 | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | — | — | — | 1 |
| 28 | Fenerbahce | 1 | — | — | — | 1 |
| 29 | Slavia Praha | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
| 30 | Napoli | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
| 31 | Viking | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
| 32 | RB Leipzig | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
| 33 | Feyenoord | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
| 34 | Sabah FA | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
| 35 | Slovan Bratislava | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
| 36 | Bodo/Glimt | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
