Predictions / Football / Japan. J2 League / Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs Consadole Sapporo

Prediction Audit: Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs Consadole Sapporo Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Tegevajaro Miyazaki Tegevajaro Miyazaki
Sep 26, 2026 - 08:00
3 1.34
2 1.26
xG Accuracy: 52%
Consadole Sapporo Consadole Sapporo

AI correctly predicted the Tegevajaro Miyazaki win.

The match finished 3–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Tegevajaro Miyazaki Tegevajaro Miyazaki ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Tegevajaro Miyazaki higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Tegevajaro Miyazaki -8.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Tegevajaro Miyazaki 37.1% 45.5% -8.4 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 26.2% +3.4 pp Aligned
Consadole Sapporo 33.3% 28.3% +5.0 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Tegevajaro Miyazaki's win probability at 45.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.1%, a difference of 8.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Tegevajaro Miyazaki win 3–2).

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Tegevajaro Miyazaki. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Tegevajaro Miyazaki higher (45.5% vs model 37.1%, 8.4 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Tegevajaro Miyazaki win 3–2).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 26, 2026 · 08:01 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Tegevajaro Miyazaki 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Consadole Sapporo 33.4%
    • xG · Tegevajaro Miyazaki 1.34 — Consadole Sapporo 1.26
  2. Sep 26, 2026 · 07:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Tegevajaro Miyazaki 2.09 · Draw 3.63 · Consadole Sapporo 3.36
    • Implied 1X2 · Tegevajaro Miyazaki 45.5% · Draw 26.2% · Consadole Sapporo 28.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 26, 2026 · 08:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Tegevajaro Miyazaki 2.09 · Draw 3.63 · Consadole Sapporo 3.36
    • Implied 1X2 · Tegevajaro Miyazaki 45.5% · Draw 26.2% · Consadole Sapporo 28.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 26, 2026 · 08:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Tegevajaro Miyazaki win · 3–2
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 57/100
Betting Confidence 78/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 00:39 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10076925

Closing Odds 2.09
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Tegevajaro Miyazaki win · Tegevajaro Miyazaki 3–2 Consadole Sapporo
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: J2 League
  • Fixture: Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs Consadole Sapporo
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-26 08:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.4%
  • xG (showing): Tegevajaro Miyazaki 1.34 — Consadole Sapporo 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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J2 League J2 League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Vegalta Sendai 8 5 2 1 17
2 Omiya Ardija 8 4 4 0 16
3 Albirex Niigata 8 5 1 2 16
4 Shonan Bellmare 8 4 3 1 15
5 Kataller Toyama 8 4 2 2 14
6 Yokohama FC 8 4 2 2 14
7 Tokushima Vortis 8 4 1 3 13
8 Montedio Yamagata 8 4 0 4 12
9 Fujieda MYFC 8 3 3 2 12
10 Tegevajaro Miyazaki 8 3 2 3 11
11 Tochigi City 8 3 1 4 10
12 Blaublitz Akita 8 2 4 2 10
13 Jubilo Iwata 8 3 1 4 10
14 Vanraure Hachinohe 8 3 1 4 10
15 Iwaki 8 3 0 5 9
16 Oita Trinita 8 1 5 2 8
17 Sagan Tosu 8 2 2 4 8
18 Ventforet Kofu 8 2 1 5 7
19 Consadole Sapporo 8 1 2 5 5
20 Imabari 8 1 1 6 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Omiya Ardija 8 16 7 +9 16
2 Kataller Toyama 8 16 8 +8 14
3 Yokohama FC 8 16 11 +5 14
4 Vegalta Sendai 8 15 7 +8 17
5 Tochigi City 8 14 13 +1 10
6 Fujieda MYFC 8 12 9 +3 12
7 Tegevajaro Miyazaki 8 12 12 0 11
8 Blaublitz Akita 8 11 10 +1 10
9 Albirex Niigata 8 11 12 -1 16
10 Iwaki 8 11 15 -4 9
11 Montedio Yamagata 8 10 6 +4 12
12 Jubilo Iwata 8 10 11 -1 10
13 Consadole Sapporo 8 10 17 -7 5
14 Shonan Bellmare 8 9 7 +2 15
15 Tokushima Vortis 8 8 8 0 13
16 Sagan Tosu 8 8 11 -3 8
17 Oita Trinita 8 7 6 +1 8
18 Imabari 8 7 17 -10 4
19 Ventforet Kofu 8 6 15 -9 7
20 Vanraure Hachinohe 8 5 12 -7 10
J2 League Japan. J2 League Predictions