Prediction Audit: Yokohama FC vs Jubilo Iwata Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Yokohama FC

Aug 16, 2026 - 09:00

3 1.35

1 1.25

xG Accuracy: 59%

Jubilo Iwata

AI correctly predicted the Yokohama FC win.

The match finished 3–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Yokohama FC Yokohama FC ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Yokohama FC	37.5%	50.5%	-13.0 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.6%	28.2%	+1.4 pp	Aligned
Jubilo Iwata	32.9%	21.3%	+11.6 pp	Model Edge

The closing market estimates Yokohama FC's win probability at 50.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.5%, a difference of 13.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Yokohama FC win 3–1).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Yokohama FC than the current fair estimate.

Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Yokohama FC higher (50.5% vs model 37.5%, 13.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Yokohama FC win 3–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 16, 2026 · 08:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Yokohama FC 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Jubilo Iwata 32.9%
- xG · Yokohama FC 1.35 — Jubilo Iwata 1.25
Aug 16, 2026 · 08:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Yokohama FC 1.88 · Draw 3.37 · Jubilo Iwata 4.47
- Implied 1X2 · Yokohama FC 50.5% · Draw 28.2% · Jubilo Iwata 21.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 16, 2026 · 08:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Yokohama FC 1.88 · Draw 3.37 · Jubilo Iwata 4.47
- Implied 1X2 · Yokohama FC 50.5% · Draw 28.2% · Jubilo Iwata 21.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 16, 2026 · 09:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Yokohama FC win · 3–1
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (13 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Market has already priced much of the edge
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 35/100

Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 11, 2026 · 00:55 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3600078

Closing Odds 1.88

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Yokohama FC win · Yokohama FC 3–1 Jubilo Iwata

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: J2 League
Fixture: Yokohama FC vs Jubilo Iwata
Kickoff: 2026-08-16 09:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.9%
xG (showing): Yokohama FC 1.35 — Jubilo Iwata 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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J2 League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Vegalta Sendai	8	5	2	1	17
2	Omiya Ardija	8	4	4	0	16
3	Albirex Niigata	8	5	1	2	16
4	Shonan Bellmare	8	4	3	1	15
5	Kataller Toyama	8	4	2	2	14
6	Yokohama FC	8	4	2	2	14
7	Tokushima Vortis	8	4	1	3	13
8	Montedio Yamagata	8	4	0	4	12
9	Fujieda MYFC	8	3	3	2	12
10	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	8	3	2	3	11
11	Tochigi City	8	3	1	4	10
12	Blaublitz Akita	8	2	4	2	10
13	Jubilo Iwata	8	3	1	4	10
14	Vanraure Hachinohe	8	3	1	4	10
15	Iwaki	8	3	0	5	9
16	Oita Trinita	8	1	5	2	8
17	Sagan Tosu	8	2	2	4	8
18	Ventforet Kofu	8	2	1	5	7
19	Consadole Sapporo	8	1	2	5	5
20	Imabari	8	1	1	6	4

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Omiya Ardija	8	16	7	+9	16
2	Kataller Toyama	8	16	8	+8	14
3	Yokohama FC	8	16	11	+5	14
4	Vegalta Sendai	8	15	7	+8	17
5	Tochigi City	8	14	13	+1	10
6	Fujieda MYFC	8	12	9	+3	12
7	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	8	12	12	0	11
8	Blaublitz Akita	8	11	10	+1	10
9	Albirex Niigata	8	11	12	-1	16
10	Iwaki	8	11	15	-4	9
11	Montedio Yamagata	8	10	6	+4	12
12	Jubilo Iwata	8	10	11	-1	10
13	Consadole Sapporo	8	10	17	-7	5
14	Shonan Bellmare	8	9	7	+2	15
15	Tokushima Vortis	8	8	8	0	13
16	Sagan Tosu	8	8	11	-3	8
17	Oita Trinita	8	7	6	+1	8
18	Imabari	8	7	17	-10	4
19	Ventforet Kofu	8	6	15	-9	7
20	Vanraure Hachinohe	8	5	12	-7	10